From bb659cf7ae31768fbe0ed2e999fc2ca5a8d3b0a9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: I Luk Kim Date: Tue, 24 Mar 2026 03:58:19 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] Add reaction-based position sizing to reduce mean-reversion loss risk MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit New feature: reaction_size_cap_threshold in RiskConfig - When abs(reaction_day_return) > threshold, position size scales down - Formula: scaler = threshold / abs(reaction) (linear inverse) - E.g. threshold=8%: 8% reaction → 100%, 16% → 50%, 24% → 33% Paper trading impact simulation (top 10 trades): - PII (react +14%): loss $501 → $288 (saved $214) - VSCO (react +18%): loss $792 → $350 (saved $442) - RYTM (react +12%): loss $397 → $256 (saved $141) - Winners (react <5%): unchanged (SSRM, FLS, LW, KGS all 100%) - Total loss reduction: $2,610 → $1,813 (-30%) - Net PnL improvement: +$797 v6new.24 backtest: Train SQS 92.5 (session best), risk=75.6. Public SQS 52.5 (lower return due to sizing, but best risk profile). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) --- .../experiments/return_max_long_v6new.24.json | 841 ++++++++++++++++++ journal/LEADERBOARD.md | 209 ++--- journal/improvement_journal.jsonl | 16 + libs/backtest/allocator.py | 23 + libs/backtest/domain.py | 2 + 5 files changed, 987 insertions(+), 104 deletions(-) create mode 100644 configs/experiments/return_max_long_v6new.24.json diff --git a/configs/experiments/return_max_long_v6new.24.json b/configs/experiments/return_max_long_v6new.24.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..88afd07 --- /dev/null +++ b/configs/experiments/return_max_long_v6new.24.json @@ -0,0 +1,841 @@ +{ + "experiment_name": "return_max_long_v6new.24", + "dataset_snapshot_id": "midlarge-liquid-long-v1", + "description": "v6new.23 + reaction-based position sizing: scale down for reaction > 8%", + "base_config": "configs/backtest/return_max_long_v1.json", + "overrides": { + "signal": { + "scoring_model": "return_max_long_v5", + "score_threshold": 0.45, + 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"early_failure_no_progress_days_override": 10, + "early_failure_no_progress_r_override": 0.0, + "early_failure_no_progress_fraction_override": 1.0, + "target_1_r_override": 5.0, + "target_1_fraction_override": 0.1, + "trailing_warmup_days_override": 10, + "per_trade_risk_pct_override": 0.01, + "stop_atr_multiplier_override": 3.0, + "use_reaction_day_low_stop_override": false, + "enabled": true + } + ], + "splits": [ + { + "kind": "named_snapshot", + "params": { + "name": "train" + } + }, + { + "kind": "named_snapshot", + "params": { + "name": "valid" + } + }, + { + "kind": "named_snapshot", + "params": { + "name": "test" + } + } + ], + "tags": [ + "return-max", + "v6new", + "reaction-sizing" + ], + "notes": "Reaction > 8% gets scaled: 8%\u2192100%, 16%\u219250%, 24%\u219233%. Targets PII(14%), VSCO(18%), RYTM(12%) losses." +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/journal/LEADERBOARD.md b/journal/LEADERBOARD.md index b1937e8..5d37950 100644 --- a/journal/LEADERBOARD.md +++ b/journal/LEADERBOARD.md @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ # Strategy Improvement Leaderboard -_Updated: 2026-03-24T07:56:47.932261+00:00_ +_Updated: 2026-03-24T10:57:37.397722+00:00_ _Default view excludes retired legacy PEAD / short-core / exact-pocket families and incomplete train-only scans. Use `fithia2 lb --include-retired` to inspect archived research._ @@ -48,125 +48,126 @@ _Default view excludes retired legacy PEAD / short-core / exact-pocket families | 41 | return_max_long_v6.18 | 56.4 | +64.0 | +38.3 | +59.1 | +139.7 | 4.1 | 40.5 | 73.3 | 1.46 | 2026-03-23 | | 42 | return_max_long_v6.15 | 54.8 | +63.8 | +34.5 | +59.1 | +139.7 | 4.1 | 40.3 | 73.3 | 1.47 | 2026-03-23 | | 43 | return_max_long_v1.284 | 54.0 | +59.4 | +35.8 | +48.6 | +110.9 | 4.0 | 40.4 | 70.4 | 1.20 | 2026-03-23 | -| 44 | return_max_long_v1.256 | 52.1 | +58.3 | +35.8 | +46.8 | +106.0 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-23 | -| 45 | return_max_long_v6.3 | 52.0 | +52.6 | +35.2 | +59.6 | +141.0 | 4.1 | 39.9 | 70.4 | 1.49 | 2026-03-23 | -| 46 | return_max_long_v6new.2 | 51.9 | +129.8 | +20.4 | +82.3 | +95.9 | 3.4 | 32.1 | 68.4 | 2.56 | 2026-03-23 | -| 47 | return_max_long_v1.236 | 51.7 | +55.5 | +35.5 | +46.8 | +105.9 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-22 | -| 48 | return_max_long_v1.248 | 51.1 | +56.7 | +35.5 | +47.2 | +107.1 | 4.0 | 41.6 | 66.7 | 1.13 | 2026-03-23 | -| 49 | return_max_long_v1.251 | 50.9 | +58.0 | +35.3 | +46.8 | +105.9 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-23 | -| 50 | return_max_long_v1.231 | 50.9 | +51.6 | +35.5 | +46.8 | +105.9 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-22 | -| 51 | return_max_long_v1.227 | 50.8 | +51.8 | +35.0 | +46.8 | +105.9 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-22 | -| 52 | return_max_long_v4.41 | 50.4 | +52.6 | +35.2 | +59.2 | +140.0 | 4.1 | 39.7 | 70.4 | 1.49 | 2026-03-22 | -| 53 | return_max_long_v1.232 | 50.3 | +52.8 | +35.5 | +47.2 | +107.1 | 4.0 | 41.6 | 66.7 | 1.13 | 2026-03-22 | -| 54 | return_max_long_v6new.5 | 50.2 | +97.9 | +15.5 | +77.9 | +90.7 | 3.1 | 26.5 | 64.9 | 2.94 | 2026-03-23 | -| 55 | return_max_long_v6.4 | 49.7 | +55.3 | +37.2 | +59.8 | +141.8 | 4.1 | 39.3 | 70.4 | 1.52 | 2026-03-23 | -| 56 | return_max_long_v6.15 | 48.9 | - | +34.5 | +59.1 | +139.7 | 4.1 | 40.3 | 73.3 | 1.47 | 2026-03-23 | -| 57 | return_max_long_v4.42 | 47.9 | +53.3 | +35.8 | +27.7 | +90.8 | 2.3 | 34.7 | 70.5 | 0.80 | 2026-03-22 | -| 58 | return_max_long_v1.264 | 47.7 | +58.5 | +36.2 | +46.9 | +106.3 | 4.0 | 41.9 | 69.6 | 1.12 | 2026-03-23 | -| 59 | return_max_long_v6new.21 | 46.9 | +43.4 | +34.8 | +40.8 | +90.4 | 4.1 | 33.2 | 61.5 | 1.23 | 2026-03-24 | -| 60 | return_max_long_v4.40 | 46.2 | +52.8 | +33.9 | +59.1 | +139.6 | 4.0 | 38.3 | 63.7 | 1.54 | 2026-03-22 | -| 61 | return_max_long_v4.38 | 45.6 | +52.8 | +33.9 | +59.1 | +139.6 | 4.0 | 37.9 | 63.0 | 1.56 | 2026-03-22 | -| 62 | return_max_long_v1.214 | 45.6 | +54.8 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | -| 63 | return_max_long_v4.39 | 45.4 | +53.3 | +35.8 | +27.6 | +90.8 | 2.3 | 33.0 | 69.5 | 0.84 | 2026-03-22 | -| 64 | return_max_long_v1.212 | 45.3 | +54.4 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | -| 65 | return_max_long_v1.199 | 45.3 | +53.8 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | +| 44 | return_max_long_v6new.24 | 52.5 | +48.5 | +35.1 | +45.0 | +101.3 | 3.1 | 29.6 | 61.5 | 1.52 | 2026-03-24 | +| 45 | return_max_long_v1.256 | 52.1 | +58.3 | +35.8 | +46.8 | +106.0 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-23 | +| 46 | return_max_long_v6.3 | 52.0 | +52.6 | +35.2 | +59.6 | +141.0 | 4.1 | 39.9 | 70.4 | 1.49 | 2026-03-23 | +| 47 | return_max_long_v6new.2 | 51.9 | +129.8 | +20.4 | +82.3 | +95.9 | 3.4 | 32.1 | 68.4 | 2.56 | 2026-03-23 | +| 48 | return_max_long_v1.236 | 51.7 | +55.5 | +35.5 | +46.8 | +105.9 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-22 | +| 49 | return_max_long_v1.248 | 51.1 | +56.7 | +35.5 | +47.2 | +107.1 | 4.0 | 41.6 | 66.7 | 1.13 | 2026-03-23 | +| 50 | return_max_long_v1.251 | 50.9 | +58.0 | +35.3 | +46.8 | +105.9 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-23 | +| 51 | return_max_long_v1.231 | 50.9 | +51.6 | +35.5 | +46.8 | +105.9 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-22 | +| 52 | return_max_long_v1.227 | 50.8 | +51.8 | +35.0 | +46.8 | +105.9 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 69.6 | 1.11 | 2026-03-22 | +| 53 | return_max_long_v4.41 | 50.4 | +52.6 | +35.2 | +59.2 | +140.0 | 4.1 | 39.7 | 70.4 | 1.49 | 2026-03-22 | +| 54 | return_max_long_v1.232 | 50.3 | +52.8 | +35.5 | +47.2 | +107.1 | 4.0 | 41.6 | 66.7 | 1.13 | 2026-03-22 | +| 55 | return_max_long_v6new.5 | 50.2 | +97.9 | +15.5 | +77.9 | +90.7 | 3.1 | 26.5 | 64.9 | 2.94 | 2026-03-23 | +| 56 | return_max_long_v6.4 | 49.7 | +55.3 | +37.2 | +59.8 | +141.8 | 4.1 | 39.3 | 70.4 | 1.52 | 2026-03-23 | +| 57 | return_max_long_v6.15 | 48.9 | - | +34.5 | +59.1 | +139.7 | 4.1 | 40.3 | 73.3 | 1.47 | 2026-03-23 | +| 58 | return_max_long_v4.42 | 47.9 | +53.3 | +35.8 | +27.7 | +90.8 | 2.3 | 34.7 | 70.5 | 0.80 | 2026-03-22 | +| 59 | return_max_long_v1.264 | 47.7 | +58.5 | +36.2 | +46.9 | +106.3 | 4.0 | 41.9 | 69.6 | 1.12 | 2026-03-23 | +| 60 | return_max_long_v6new.21 | 46.9 | +43.4 | +34.8 | +40.8 | +90.4 | 4.1 | 33.2 | 61.5 | 1.23 | 2026-03-24 | +| 61 | return_max_long_v4.40 | 46.2 | +52.8 | +33.9 | +59.1 | +139.6 | 4.0 | 38.3 | 63.7 | 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| 3.1 | 26.5 | 64.9 | 2.94 | 2026-03-23 | -| 80 | return_max_long_v6new.8 | 41.5 | +71.1 | +40.5 | +48.9 | +111.6 | 4.2 | 46.4 | 77.8 | 1.05 | 2026-03-24 | -| 81 | return_max_long_v1.278 | 41.2 | +52.2 | +31.2 | +53.6 | +124.5 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 71.1 | 1.29 | 2026-03-23 | -| 82 | return_max_long_v1.180 | 41.0 | +42.9 | +37.5 | +47.7 | +108.4 | 4.0 | 40.9 | 66.7 | 1.17 | 2026-03-22 | -| 83 | return_max_long_v1.174 | 40.5 | +43.0 | +36.9 | +46.1 | +104.3 | 4.0 | 40.4 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | -| 84 | return_max_long_v1.201 | 39.9 | +54.1 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | -| 85 | return_max_long_v6.44 | 39.6 | +36.3 | +20.5 | +43.1 | +96.2 | 4.8 | 42.6 | 70.4 | 1.01 | 2026-03-23 | -| 86 | return_max_long_v1.218 | 39.5 | +57.1 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | -| 87 | return_max_long_v1.207 | 39.0 | +56.7 | +37.5 | +47.3 | +107.3 | 4.0 | 41.9 | 72.6 | 1.13 | 2026-03-22 | -| 88 | return_max_long_v4.12 | 37.9 | +54.8 | +30.5 | +26.7 | +87.2 | 2.5 | 30.9 | 68.4 | 0.86 | 2026-03-22 | -| 89 | return_max_long_v1.170 | 37.1 | +43.5 | +35.3 | +41.4 | +92.0 | 4.7 | 39.0 | 58.5 | 1.06 | 2026-03-22 | -| 90 | return_max_long_v4.16 | 37.0 | +57.1 | +30.1 | +24.7 | +79.5 | 3.0 | 31.5 | 68.4 | 0.78 | 2026-03-22 | -| 91 | return_max_long_v4.9 | 34.9 | +42.9 | +37.5 | +47.7 | +108.4 | 4.0 | 40.9 | 66.7 | 1.17 | 2026-03-22 | -| 92 | return_max_long_v4.11 | 34.9 | +42.9 | +37.5 | +47.7 | +108.4 | 4.0 | 40.9 | 66.7 | 1.17 | 2026-03-22 | -| 93 | return_max_long_v6new.5 | 33.7 | +97.9 | +15.5 | +77.9 | +90.7 | 3.1 | 26.5 | 64.9 | 2.94 | 2026-03-23 | -| 94 | return_max_long_v4.10 | 33.2 | +44.0 | +37.5 | +47.7 | +108.4 | 4.0 | 40.2 | 66.7 | 1.19 | 2026-03-22 | -| 95 | return_max_long_v6.29 | 32.3 | +61.9 | +40.5 | +56.8 | +133.2 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 71.1 | 1.44 | 2026-03-24 | -| 96 | return_max_long_v6new.1 | 29.9 | +131.2 | +17.0 | +105.2 | +123.7 | 3.4 | 34.7 | 71.6 | 3.03 | 2026-03-23 | -| 97 | return_max_long_v1.102 | 28.5 | +35.6 | +35.3 | +42.6 | +95.0 | 4.7 | 34.7 | 40.7 | 1.23 | 2026-03-22 | -| 98 | return_max_long_v1.128 | 28.5 | +35.6 | +35.3 | +42.6 | +95.0 | 4.7 | 34.7 | 40.7 | 1.23 | 2026-03-22 | -| 99 | return_max_long_v2.4 | 28.4 | +35.6 | +35.3 | +42.5 | +94.8 | 5.0 | 34.9 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | -| 100 | return_max_long_v1.101 | 28.2 | +36.7 | +35.3 | +42.6 | +95.1 | 4.7 | 34.8 | 40.7 | 1.23 | 2026-03-22 | -| 101 | return_max_long_v6new.7 | 27.8 | +58.1 | +42.7 | +59.2 | +139.9 | 4.0 | 38.0 | 63.7 | 1.56 | 2026-03-24 | +| 67 | return_max_long_v1.199 | 45.3 | +53.8 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | +| 68 | return_max_long_v1.204 | 45.1 | +54.5 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | +| 69 | return_max_long_v4.28 | 45.0 | +51.8 | +37.5 | +59.1 | +139.8 | 4.0 | 37.8 | 63.0 | 1.56 | 2026-03-22 | +| 70 | return_max_long_v4.43 | 44.9 | +52.9 | +33.9 | +59.0 | +139.5 | 4.1 | 39.6 | 63.7 | 1.49 | 2026-03-22 | +| 71 | return_max_long_v4.36 | 44.7 | +52.3 | +38.4 | +58.6 | +138.2 | 4.1 | 39.3 | 63.0 | 1.49 | 2026-03-22 | +| 72 | return_max_long_v4.19 | 44.6 | +54.8 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | +| 73 | return_max_long_v4.20 | 44.3 | +55.4 | +30.5 | +27.6 | +90.8 | 2.3 | 33.0 | 69.5 | 0.84 | 2026-03-22 | +| 74 | return_max_long_v4.31 | 44.2 | +55.9 | +38.4 | +27.7 | +79.3 | 2.3 | 29.8 | 62.3 | 0.93 | 2026-03-22 | +| 75 | return_max_long_v4.29 | 43.8 | +56.4 | +38.3 | +26.2 | +74.2 | 2.6 | 30.2 | 62.3 | 0.87 | 2026-03-22 | +| 76 | return_max_long_v6new.1 | 43.8 | +131.2 | +17.0 | +105.2 | +123.7 | 3.4 | 34.7 | 71.6 | 3.03 | 2026-03-23 | +| 77 | return_max_long_v1.192 | 43.4 | +51.6 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | +| 78 | return_max_long_v1.188 | 42.7 | +48.9 | +37.5 | +47.6 | +108.2 | 4.0 | 41.1 | 66.7 | 1.16 | 2026-03-22 | +| 79 | return_max_long_v1.194 | 42.6 | +51.6 | +37.5 | +47.6 | +108.2 | 4.0 | 41.1 | 66.7 | 1.16 | 2026-03-22 | +| 80 | return_max_long_v6new.4 | 42.0 | +85.6 | +18.4 | +77.9 | +90.7 | 3.1 | 26.5 | 64.9 | 2.94 | 2026-03-23 | +| 81 | return_max_long_v6new.8 | 41.5 | +71.1 | +40.5 | +48.9 | +111.6 | 4.2 | 46.4 | 77.8 | 1.05 | 2026-03-24 | +| 82 | return_max_long_v1.278 | 41.2 | +52.2 | +31.2 | +53.6 | +124.5 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 71.1 | 1.29 | 2026-03-23 | +| 83 | return_max_long_v1.180 | 41.0 | +42.9 | +37.5 | +47.7 | +108.4 | 4.0 | 40.9 | 66.7 | 1.17 | 2026-03-22 | +| 84 | return_max_long_v1.174 | 40.5 | +43.0 | +36.9 | +46.1 | +104.3 | 4.0 | 40.4 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | +| 85 | return_max_long_v1.201 | 39.9 | +54.1 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | +| 86 | return_max_long_v6.44 | 39.6 | +36.3 | +20.5 | +43.1 | +96.2 | 4.8 | 42.6 | 70.4 | 1.01 | 2026-03-23 | +| 87 | return_max_long_v1.218 | 39.5 | +57.1 | +37.5 | +47.1 | +106.9 | 4.0 | 41.5 | 66.7 | 1.14 | 2026-03-22 | +| 88 | return_max_long_v1.207 | 39.0 | +56.7 | +37.5 | +47.3 | +107.3 | 4.0 | 41.9 | 72.6 | 1.13 | 2026-03-22 | +| 89 | return_max_long_v4.12 | 37.9 | +54.8 | +30.5 | +26.7 | +87.2 | 2.5 | 30.9 | 68.4 | 0.86 | 2026-03-22 | +| 90 | return_max_long_v1.170 | 37.1 | +43.5 | +35.3 | +41.4 | +92.0 | 4.7 | 39.0 | 58.5 | 1.06 | 2026-03-22 | +| 91 | return_max_long_v4.16 | 37.0 | +57.1 | +30.1 | +24.7 | +79.5 | 3.0 | 31.5 | 68.4 | 0.78 | 2026-03-22 | +| 92 | return_max_long_v4.9 | 34.9 | +42.9 | +37.5 | +47.7 | +108.4 | 4.0 | 40.9 | 66.7 | 1.17 | 2026-03-22 | +| 93 | return_max_long_v4.11 | 34.9 | +42.9 | +37.5 | +47.7 | +108.4 | 4.0 | 40.9 | 66.7 | 1.17 | 2026-03-22 | +| 94 | return_max_long_v6new.5 | 33.7 | +97.9 | +15.5 | +77.9 | +90.7 | 3.1 | 26.5 | 64.9 | 2.94 | 2026-03-23 | +| 95 | return_max_long_v4.10 | 33.2 | +44.0 | +37.5 | +47.7 | +108.4 | 4.0 | 40.2 | 66.7 | 1.19 | 2026-03-22 | +| 96 | return_max_long_v6.29 | 32.3 | +61.9 | +40.5 | +56.8 | +133.2 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 71.1 | 1.44 | 2026-03-24 | +| 97 | return_max_long_v6new.1 | 29.9 | +131.2 | +17.0 | +105.2 | +123.7 | 3.4 | 34.7 | 71.6 | 3.03 | 2026-03-23 | +| 98 | return_max_long_v1.102 | 28.5 | +35.6 | +35.3 | +42.6 | +95.0 | 4.7 | 34.7 | 40.7 | 1.23 | 2026-03-22 | +| 99 | return_max_long_v1.128 | 28.5 | +35.6 | +35.3 | +42.6 | +95.0 | 4.7 | 34.7 | 40.7 | 1.23 | 2026-03-22 | +| 100 | return_max_long_v2.4 | 28.4 | +35.6 | +35.3 | +42.5 | +94.8 | 5.0 | 34.9 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | +| 101 | return_max_long_v1.101 | 28.2 | +36.7 | +35.3 | +42.6 | +95.1 | 4.7 | 34.8 | 40.7 | 1.23 | 2026-03-22 | | 102 | return_max_long_v6new.7 | 27.8 | +58.1 | +42.7 | +59.2 | +139.9 | 4.0 | 38.0 | 63.7 | 1.56 | 2026-03-24 | -| 103 | return_max_long_v1.51 | 26.4 | +37.9 | +35.3 | +42.7 | +95.3 | 4.7 | 35.0 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | -| 104 | return_max_long_v6new.6 | 25.2 | +51.5 | +17.5 | +37.9 | +83.2 | 1.3 | 23.5 | 57.8 | 1.62 | 2026-03-23 | -| 105 | return_max_long_v1.52 | 24.9 | +40.0 | +35.3 | +42.7 | +95.3 | 4.7 | 35.0 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | -| 106 | return_max_long_v4.17 | 24.5 | +54.8 | +30.5 | +26.7 | +87.2 | 2.5 | 30.9 | 68.4 | 0.86 | 2026-03-22 | -| 107 | return_max_long_v2.3 | 21.0 | +30.7 | +35.3 | +28.2 | +59.7 | 4.7 | 33.3 | 39.3 | 0.85 | 2026-03-22 | -| 108 | return_max_long_v3.7 | 17.4 | +37.2 | +35.3 | +42.7 | +95.3 | 4.7 | 35.0 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | -| 109 | return_max_long_v2.5 | 16.5 | +21.7 | +35.3 | +54.5 | +126.9 | 4.7 | 35.0 | 40.7 | 1.56 | 2026-03-22 | -| 110 | return_max_long_v4.6 | 14.8 | +30.8 | +39.6 | +34.1 | +73.6 | 4.0 | 47.9 | 70.4 | 0.71 | 2026-03-22 | -| 111 | return_max_long_v3.16 | 14.6 | +33.1 | +29.9 | +51.4 | +118.4 | 4.9 | 22.8 | 26.7 | 2.25 | 2026-03-22 | -| 112 | return_max_long_v3.20 | 14.6 | +34.1 | +31.4 | +56.5 | +132.3 | 10.1 | 25.0 | 28.9 | 2.26 | 2026-03-22 | -| 113 | return_max_long_v3.2 | 14.4 | +15.9 | +36.6 | +44.5 | +99.9 | 4.7 | 43.7 | 52.6 | 1.02 | 2026-03-22 | -| 114 | return_max_long_v3.5 | 14.2 | +35.8 | +28.3 | +32.9 | +70.7 | 5.4 | 33.0 | 37.0 | 1.00 | 2026-03-22 | -| 115 | return_max_long_v3.3 | 14.0 | +25.5 | +35.3 | +37.4 | +81.8 | 4.9 | 47.3 | 56.3 | 0.79 | 2026-03-22 | -| 116 | return_max_long_v3.1 | 13.8 | +3.8 | +39.9 | +50.7 | +116.4 | 4.7 | 42.0 | 51.9 | 1.21 | 2026-03-22 | -| 117 | return_max_long_v1.53 | 13.5 | +50.9 | +38.8 | +43.4 | +97.2 | 6.8 | 36.3 | 45.2 | 1.19 | 2026-03-22 | -| 118 | return_max_long_v3.8 | 13.3 | +38.2 | +27.6 | +42.3 | +94.3 | 4.8 | 34.6 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | -| 119 | return_max_long_v4.7 | 13.2 | +23.0 | +37.6 | +33.6 | +72.4 | 3.2 | 42.9 | 70.4 | 0.78 | 2026-03-22 | -| 120 | return_max_long_v4.8 | 11.7 | +25.7 | +42.6 | +49.1 | +112.2 | 3.4 | 36.3 | 67.4 | 1.35 | 2026-03-22 | -| 121 | return_max_long_v1c.4 | 8.6 | +36.3 | +12.1 | +16.3 | +32.9 | 9.0 | 30.6 | 40.0 | 0.53 | 2026-03-22 | +| 103 | return_max_long_v6new.7 | 27.8 | +58.1 | +42.7 | +59.2 | +139.9 | 4.0 | 38.0 | 63.7 | 1.56 | 2026-03-24 | +| 104 | return_max_long_v1.51 | 26.4 | +37.9 | +35.3 | +42.7 | +95.3 | 4.7 | 35.0 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | +| 105 | return_max_long_v6new.6 | 25.2 | +51.5 | +17.5 | +37.9 | +83.2 | 1.3 | 23.5 | 57.8 | 1.62 | 2026-03-23 | +| 106 | return_max_long_v1.52 | 24.9 | +40.0 | +35.3 | +42.7 | +95.3 | 4.7 | 35.0 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | +| 107 | return_max_long_v4.17 | 24.5 | +54.8 | +30.5 | +26.7 | +87.2 | 2.5 | 30.9 | 68.4 | 0.86 | 2026-03-22 | +| 108 | return_max_long_v2.3 | 21.0 | +30.7 | +35.3 | +28.2 | +59.7 | 4.7 | 33.3 | 39.3 | 0.85 | 2026-03-22 | +| 109 | return_max_long_v3.7 | 17.4 | +37.2 | +35.3 | +42.7 | +95.3 | 4.7 | 35.0 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | +| 110 | return_max_long_v2.5 | 16.5 | +21.7 | +35.3 | +54.5 | +126.9 | 4.7 | 35.0 | 40.7 | 1.56 | 2026-03-22 | +| 111 | return_max_long_v4.6 | 14.8 | +30.8 | +39.6 | +34.1 | +73.6 | 4.0 | 47.9 | 70.4 | 0.71 | 2026-03-22 | +| 112 | return_max_long_v3.16 | 14.6 | +33.1 | +29.9 | +51.4 | +118.4 | 4.9 | 22.8 | 26.7 | 2.25 | 2026-03-22 | +| 113 | return_max_long_v3.20 | 14.6 | +34.1 | +31.4 | +56.5 | +132.3 | 10.1 | 25.0 | 28.9 | 2.26 | 2026-03-22 | +| 114 | return_max_long_v3.2 | 14.4 | +15.9 | +36.6 | +44.5 | +99.9 | 4.7 | 43.7 | 52.6 | 1.02 | 2026-03-22 | +| 115 | return_max_long_v3.5 | 14.2 | +35.8 | +28.3 | +32.9 | +70.7 | 5.4 | 33.0 | 37.0 | 1.00 | 2026-03-22 | +| 116 | return_max_long_v3.3 | 14.0 | +25.5 | +35.3 | +37.4 | +81.8 | 4.9 | 47.3 | 56.3 | 0.79 | 2026-03-22 | +| 117 | return_max_long_v3.1 | 13.8 | +3.8 | +39.9 | +50.7 | +116.4 | 4.7 | 42.0 | 51.9 | 1.21 | 2026-03-22 | +| 118 | return_max_long_v1.53 | 13.5 | +50.9 | +38.8 | +43.4 | +97.2 | 6.8 | 36.3 | 45.2 | 1.19 | 2026-03-22 | +| 119 | return_max_long_v3.8 | 13.3 | +38.2 | +27.6 | +42.3 | +94.3 | 4.8 | 34.6 | 40.7 | 1.22 | 2026-03-22 | +| 120 | return_max_long_v4.7 | 13.2 | +23.0 | +37.6 | +33.6 | +72.4 | 3.2 | 42.9 | 70.4 | 0.78 | 2026-03-22 | +| 121 | return_max_long_v4.8 | 11.7 | +25.7 | +42.6 | +49.1 | +112.2 | 3.4 | 36.3 | 67.4 | 1.35 | 2026-03-22 | | 122 | return_max_long_v1c.4 | 8.6 | +36.3 | +12.1 | +16.3 | +32.9 | 9.0 | 30.6 | 40.0 | 0.53 | 2026-03-22 | -| 123 | return_max_long_v1c.1 | 7.4 | +34.4 | +11.8 | +15.0 | +30.1 | 8.5 | 27.9 | 40.0 | 0.54 | 2026-03-22 | +| 123 | return_max_long_v1c.4 | 8.6 | +36.3 | +12.1 | +16.3 | +32.9 | 9.0 | 30.6 | 40.0 | 0.53 | 2026-03-22 | | 124 | return_max_long_v1c.1 | 7.4 | +34.4 | +11.8 | +15.0 | +30.1 | 8.5 | 27.9 | 40.0 | 0.54 | 2026-03-22 | -| 125 | return_max_long_v1c.9 | 6.3 | +36.3 | +12.1 | +22.3 | +46.0 | 8.8 | 34.7 | 45.2 | 0.64 | 2026-03-22 | -| 126 | return_max_long_v1c.15 | 6.2 | +40.1 | +14.8 | +23.1 | +47.9 | 11.5 | 40.6 | 47.4 | 0.57 | 2026-03-22 | -| 127 | return_max_long_v1c.14 | 6.1 | +38.9 | +13.9 | +21.7 | +44.7 | 11.5 | 39.4 | 47.4 | 0.55 | 2026-03-22 | -| 128 | return_max_long_v1.129 | 5.4 | +41.3 | +29.5 | +47.4 | +107.7 | 5.7 | 36.4 | 49.6 | 1.30 | 2026-03-22 | -| 129 | return_max_long_v1c.7 | 4.7 | +41.4 | +15.7 | +17.0 | +34.4 | 11.8 | 36.7 | 42.2 | 0.46 | 2026-03-22 | +| 125 | return_max_long_v1c.1 | 7.4 | +34.4 | +11.8 | +15.0 | +30.1 | 8.5 | 27.9 | 40.0 | 0.54 | 2026-03-22 | +| 126 | return_max_long_v1c.9 | 6.3 | +36.3 | +12.1 | +22.3 | +46.0 | 8.8 | 34.7 | 45.2 | 0.64 | 2026-03-22 | +| 127 | return_max_long_v1c.15 | 6.2 | +40.1 | +14.8 | +23.1 | +47.9 | 11.5 | 40.6 | 47.4 | 0.57 | 2026-03-22 | +| 128 | return_max_long_v1c.14 | 6.1 | +38.9 | +13.9 | +21.7 | +44.7 | 11.5 | 39.4 | 47.4 | 0.55 | 2026-03-22 | +| 129 | return_max_long_v1.129 | 5.4 | +41.3 | +29.5 | +47.4 | +107.7 | 5.7 | 36.4 | 49.6 | 1.30 | 2026-03-22 | | 130 | return_max_long_v1c.7 | 4.7 | +41.4 | +15.7 | +17.0 | +34.4 | 11.8 | 36.7 | 42.2 | 0.46 | 2026-03-22 | -| 131 | return_max_long_v1.143 | 4.5 | +35.1 | +35.3 | +42.6 | +95.0 | 4.7 | 34.7 | 40.7 | 1.23 | 2026-03-22 | -| 132 | return_max_long_v1.55 | 3.6 | +37.9 | +35.3 | +48.0 | +109.3 | 4.7 | 34.4 | 39.3 | 1.40 | 2026-03-22 | -| 133 | return_max_long_v1.76 | 3.6 | +37.9 | +35.3 | +48.0 | +109.3 | 4.7 | 34.4 | 39.3 | 1.40 | 2026-03-22 | -| 134 | return_max_long_v1c.13 | 3.3 | +41.4 | +15.7 | +24.5 | +51.0 | 11.5 | 41.7 | 47.4 | 0.59 | 2026-03-22 | -| 135 | return_max_long_v1.146 | 3.2 | +27.2 | +35.2 | +50.1 | +114.8 | 6.0 | 37.1 | 49.6 | 1.35 | 2026-03-22 | -| 136 | return_max_long_v2.2 | 2.9 | +28.2 | +33.5 | +32.2 | +69.1 | 3.6 | 28.6 | 31.9 | 1.13 | 2026-03-22 | -| 137 | return_max_long_v4.1 | 1.7 | +22.8 | +16.5 | +15.1 | +30.3 | 7.3 | 39.4 | 41.5 | 0.38 | 2026-03-22 | -| 138 | return_max_long_v2.1 | 0.4 | +13.8 | +13.2 | +22.2 | +45.9 | 3.2 | 22.3 | 28.1 | 0.99 | 2026-03-22 | +| 131 | return_max_long_v1c.7 | 4.7 | +41.4 | +15.7 | +17.0 | +34.4 | 11.8 | 36.7 | 42.2 | 0.46 | 2026-03-22 | +| 132 | return_max_long_v1.143 | 4.5 | +35.1 | +35.3 | +42.6 | +95.0 | 4.7 | 34.7 | 40.7 | 1.23 | 2026-03-22 | +| 133 | return_max_long_v1.55 | 3.6 | +37.9 | +35.3 | +48.0 | +109.3 | 4.7 | 34.4 | 39.3 | 1.40 | 2026-03-22 | +| 134 | return_max_long_v1.76 | 3.6 | +37.9 | +35.3 | +48.0 | +109.3 | 4.7 | 34.4 | 39.3 | 1.40 | 2026-03-22 | +| 135 | return_max_long_v1c.13 | 3.3 | +41.4 | +15.7 | +24.5 | +51.0 | 11.5 | 41.7 | 47.4 | 0.59 | 2026-03-22 | +| 136 | return_max_long_v1.146 | 3.2 | +27.2 | +35.2 | +50.1 | +114.8 | 6.0 | 37.1 | 49.6 | 1.35 | 2026-03-22 | +| 137 | return_max_long_v2.2 | 2.9 | +28.2 | +33.5 | +32.2 | +69.1 | 3.6 | 28.6 | 31.9 | 1.13 | 2026-03-22 | +| 138 | return_max_long_v4.1 | 1.7 | +22.8 | +16.5 | +15.1 | +30.3 | 7.3 | 39.4 | 41.5 | 0.38 | 2026-03-22 | +| 139 | return_max_long_v2.1 | 0.4 | +13.8 | +13.2 | +22.2 | +45.9 | 3.2 | 22.3 | 28.1 | 0.99 | 2026-03-22 | ## Recent Entries -### IMP-0545 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v6.101 -Hypothesis: v6.59 + lower per-trade risk on other_material_unknown_orderly (0.007) | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.0065 | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.006 | tail-safe live variant: downsize unknown_ome, other_material_unknown, bullish_raised_recovery +### IMP-0561 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v7.17 +Hypothesis: v6.59 + lower per-trade risk on other_material_unknown_orderly (0.007) | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.0065 | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.006 | hybrid_contd3 event-day-only baseline Verdict: **UNKNOWN** (SQS None) Reasoning: Auto-synced from official manifest. -### IMP-0544 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v6.100 -Hypothesis: v6.59 + lower per-trade risk on other_material_unknown_orderly (0.007) | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.0065 | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.006 | tail-safe live variant: downsize unknown_ome, other_material_unknown, bullish_raised_recovery +### IMP-0560 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v7.16 +Hypothesis: v6.59 + lower per-trade risk on other_material_unknown_orderly (0.007) | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.0065 | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.006 | hybrid_contd3 earnings continuation satellite budget=0.08 risk=0.008 Verdict: **UNKNOWN** (SQS None) Reasoning: Auto-synced from official manifest. -### IMP-0543 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v6new.23 -Hypothesis: v6new.22 + OME risk halved + vol gate 1.0 + guidance react_min raised -Verdict: **UNKNOWN** (SQS 62.3) -Reasoning: Train SQS 91.6 (best), OOT worst -0.31% (best). But trades 90 (down from 106). Test +55%. WFV 91.7%. RM 80.4%. - -### IMP-0542 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v6.99 -Hypothesis: v6.59 + lower per-trade risk on other_material_unknown_orderly (0.007) | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.0065 | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.006 | safer live variant: downsize reaction_close engines +### IMP-0559 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v7.15 +Hypothesis: v6.59 + lower per-trade risk on other_material_unknown_orderly (0.007) | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.0065 | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.006 | hybrid_contd3 earnings continuation satellite budget=0.04 risk=0.006 Verdict: **UNKNOWN** (SQS None) Reasoning: Auto-synced from official manifest. -### IMP-0541 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v6.98 -Hypothesis: v6.59 + lower per-trade risk on other_material_unknown_orderly (0.007) | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.0065 | other_material_unknown_orderly risk=0.006 | safer live variant: downsize reaction_close engines +### IMP-0558 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v6new.24 +Hypothesis: Reaction-based position sizing: scale down when reaction > 8% to reduce mean-reversion loss +Verdict: **UNKNOWN** (SQS 52.5) +Reasoning: Train SQS 92.5 (session best). Risk component 75.6 (best). Test +45%. WFV 91.7% positive, gap 9.53%. RM worst -1.30%. Trades 94 (down from 90 v23, same events just smaller positions). + +### IMP-0557 (2026-03-24) — return_max_long_v7.9 +Hypothesis: Patient-drift continuation family on a synthetic D+3 continuation snapshot built from corrected midlarge events. 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Live paper trading showed: + - Losses avg reaction +10.8% → big positions that reverse + - Wins avg reaction +0.7% → moderate positions that drift + + Scaling: full size at reaction_threshold, half at 2x threshold. + Disabled when reaction_size_cap_threshold is None (default). + """ + threshold = config.risk.reaction_size_cap_threshold + if threshold is None: + return 1.0 + reaction = abs(candidate.features.get("reaction_day_return", 0.0) or 0.0) + if reaction <= threshold: + return 1.0 + # Linear scale-down: threshold → 1.0, 2*threshold → 0.5, 3*threshold → 0.33 + return threshold / reaction + + def run_entry_gates( candidate: Candidate, portfolio_state: DailyPortfolioState, @@ -595,6 +615,9 @@ def build_planned_order( vix_scaler = _vix_continuous_size_scaler(config, macro_data) if vix_scaler != 1.0: shares = max(1, math.floor(shares * vix_scaler)) + reaction_scaler = _reaction_size_scaler(candidate, config) + if reaction_scaler < 1.0: + shares = max(1, math.floor(shares * reaction_scaler)) if config.risk.allow_budget_downsizing: remaining_risk, daily_remaining, engine_remaining = _remaining_risk_budget_dollars( candidate, diff --git a/libs/backtest/domain.py b/libs/backtest/domain.py index 2159ae0..eb3d0e9 100644 --- a/libs/backtest/domain.py +++ b/libs/backtest/domain.py @@ -285,6 +285,7 @@ class RiskConfig(BaseModel): veto_unknown_direction: bool = True # block if event_direction == "unknown" veto_bearish_direction: bool = True # block if event_direction == "bearish" fixed_capital_sizing: bool = False # when True, position sizing uses initial_capital instead of current equity + reaction_size_cap_threshold: float | None = None # abs(reaction)% above which size scales down (e.g. 0.08) vix_size_scaler_low: float = 15.0 # VIX level below which sizing is 1.0 (full) vix_size_scaler_high: float = 30.0 # VIX level above which sizing is at minimum vix_size_scaler_min: float = 0.35 # minimum size scaler at high VIX @@ -335,6 +336,7 @@ class StrategyEngineConfig(BaseModel): engine_id: str event_types: list[str] = Field(default_factory=list) + entry_conventions: list[str] | None = None event_directions: list[str] | None = None guidance_statuses: list[str] | None = None filing_time_buckets: list[str] | None = None