13 Commits (main)

Author SHA1 Message Date
I Luk Kim b98442b28a Add paper trader improvements, web GUI updates, and experiment registry cleanup
- Paper trader: Alpaca broker fixes, catchup-thread state improvements
- Web GUI: intraday backtest duplicate run button, paper trading fixes
- Experiment registry: cleanup old v15/v16 experiments, update index
- Tests: Oracle client test additions

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim b3ba914a8d Optimize v7 strategy: v7.356 achieves CW 2159% + SQS 90.7 (Pareto improvement over v7.314)
Key changes from v7.314 baseline (CW 2012%, SQS 90.0):
- max_position_value_pct 15→25, non_a_tier_target_1_fraction 0.2→0
- max_daily_new_risk_pct 30→50 (via v7.330, CW champion 2148%)
- bullish_raised_recovery per_trade_risk_pct 0.71→0.55 (DD improvement)
- bullish_raised_recovery max_holding_days 12→10 (sweet spot, +98pp CW)

Result: v7.356 CW 2159% (+147pp), SQS 90.7 (+0.7), risk 66.2 (+2.9), robustness 94.3 (+0.5)
All metrics improved simultaneously — return increase AND DD reduction achieved.

Also includes: web UI updates, pipeline scripts, v16/v17/v18/v19 experiment pruning,
Form4 preset additions, snapshot registry updates, domain.py enhancements.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 1c46569f75 Expand CLI help to include all missing commands
누락된 명령어(overfit-check, scenario-test, refresh, web, check-duplicate,
compute-sqs, rescore-public, attach-* 5개)를 모두 추가하고,
섹션별(저널·첨부·분석·트레이딩·실험관리)로 그룹화하여 가독성 개선

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim e38c314a09 Add ownership/risk-off sleeves, v17-v19 experiments, and web app restructure
New features:
- Ownership 13D/13G residual-cash sleeve with PIT calendar and quality filters
- Risk-off alpha sleeve (GLD/DBC rotation on crisis regime signals)
- Crisis relay target in parking: evaluates before defensive relay
- Bearish symbol allocation split (bearish_alloc_pct + sgov remainder)
- Alternative defensive ETF candidate (cash_parking_defensive_alt_symbol)
- Composite eval and engine ablation tools
- experiment and overfit CLI apps

New experiments:
- v17.x series (v17.1 champion SQS 78.4; v17.5–v17.129 exhausted)
- v18.x and v19.x families from v12.8 OOT defense branch
- v7.119 composed variants (idle alpha + ownership + risk-off sleeves)
- parking_only configs: bufb, jepq, merix, regime_tiered
- empty_strategy baseline config

Web app:
- Restructured into routers/services modules (experiments, leaderboard, runs, sqs, docs)
- Ownership sleeve and risk-off sleeve controls in backtest UI
- Frontend: ComposeStrategy page, tradeSleeves lib, idle decomposition display

Research tools:
- Ownership 13D/13G probe and PIT cache builder
- Dividend capture probe and cache builder
- Insider Form4 idle alpha probe
- Alternative ETF parking probe, put-spread overlay probe
- Wikimedia low-attention and peer-relative idle alpha probes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 9cb91ee846 Add synthetic scenario robustness testing system
Builds a full synthetic market data pipeline to test strategies against
12 diverse market regimes (bull/bear/crash/chop/rotation/liquidity drought)
that may not exist in historical data. Computes Regime Robustness Score (RRS)
to detect overfitting and environment-specific fragility.

- libs/backtest/scenarios/: price_gen, macro_gen, event_gen, coupling,
  store_builder, scenarios (12 pre-built), robustness (RRS)
- apps/scenario/cli.py: `fithia2 scenario-test` with Rich output
- apps/tracker/cli.py: scenario-test command routing
- tests/: 83 unit tests across 3 new test files
- docs/scenario_test.md: usage guide and result interpretation
- docs/research_workflow_and_handoff.md: Step 5.5 scenario test added

Fix: no_signal scenario uses drift=0% (was +10%) for fair signal integrity scoring.
Fix: synthetic candidates now carry macro_vix/macro_hy_spread from macro_by_date
     to pass selector engine filters.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 8dfebcf5fe Add v6new.311-322, named strategy configs, and tracker common_window fix
- v6new.311-322: latest experiment iterations
- Named configs: baseline, conviction, core_boost, docgate, entropy_safe, quick_cut
  (derived from best-performing v6new variants for production reference)
- Rename v6new.29_mom2 → baseline_v6new.29
- tracker show: add common_window_summary field
- Journal: update leaderboard, experiment registry, improvement journal

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 76581ead04 Remove overlay backtesting and scoring 5 months ago
I Luk Kim 493b8a8d69 Add --overlay shorthand for lb command and gitignore *.db files
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim a81b3a6ac4 Update tracker, leaderboard, docs, and overlay leaderboard
Additional tracker/leaderboard updates, overlay leaderboard, and
documentation improvements.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim ce2150789d Fix leaderboard performance regression (60min → 12s) and clean up CLI help
Replaces per-experiment rglob with single-pass manifest/metrics indexing
and adds lru_cache. Removes rarely-used commands from help display.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim b507fbf499 Add attention client and continue PEAD research 5 months ago
I Luk Kim c646303423 Recalibrate public SQS and exposure-aware tracking 5 months ago
I Luk Kim cb19afa87b feat: add strategy improvement tracking system (SQS + journal + leaderboard)
Track experiment cycles with SQS scoring (0-100), JSONL journal, and
auto-generated leaderboard to prevent duplicate experiments and enable
data-driven strategy decisions.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago