6 Commits (main)

Author SHA1 Message Date
I Luk Kim 126445ae0e Promote v9.5.36 PEAD champion + prune experiments to 3-tier set; ORB soft-day parity; TGTC infra
- v9.5.36 promoted: megacap reaction_min 0.02→0.03 on v9.5.20 cap=0.70 base; Full 13,244%/MDD 11.67%/Sharpe 3.579/OOT 304%; clean Pareto win
- Pruned 130 experiment configs → keep 3 (v9.4.5 max-return, v9.5.36 balanced/champion, v9.5.18 cap=0.55 conservative); rebuilt index
- PEAD engine probes: low_vol anomaly + breakout_52w (retained as falsification probes; not promoted)
- Risk analysis: 11.67% MDD confirmed structurally HYMC (6-day giveback, not controllable); per-name cap sweep on next_open_long/reaction_close falsified (0 MDD impact)
- ORB: port soft-day primary-trigger filter to live engine (6-gate parity with simulator)
- TGTC trader infrastructure + advisor service (new)
- ORB v46/v49 sweep configs, intraday scripts, docs

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
3 months ago
I Luk Kim 9095b376d9 Clean up superseded configs and commit accumulated R&D infrastructure
Key changes:
- Delete superseded strategy configs: orb_gainers safe_v2-v9, orb_pullback, vwap_reclaim, hypergap, leader_safe
- Add V46 prior_event_types param to domain.py + run.py event type wiring
- Major simulator.py enhancements: sector thrust sleeve, sector proxy mapping, helper functions
- Improve screener.py with better scoring/filtering
- Add new test coverage: test_simulator.py (776 lines) + test_screener.py (313 lines)
- Add V24.1 research candidate configs (w002/w003/w004/entrycap/losscap010 variants)
- Add leader momentum research configs and sweep files
- Update configs/snapshots/registry.json with new strategy registrations
- Add docs/leader_intraday_momentum_workflow.md

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 9e622c6614 Investigate compound mode: V23 is absolute champion in all modes
- V23 pure compound (live-equivalent): 200d +148.13% DD-14.23%, 400d +209.41% DD-17.35%
- Hybrid V2 compound tested: 200d +175.41% looks promising but 400d +181.71% DD-23.72%
  loses to V23 by -27.7pp return AND -6.4pp worse DD → rejected
- Safe v9 compound 400d: +128.49% DD-14.43% — better DD but -81pp return vs V23 → rejected
- V23 tight governor compound 400d: +192.54% DD-17.32% — marginal gain, not worth config
- Live paper trader uses compound mode (engine.py:1816 session_equity = initial_equity + P&L)
- All improvement axes exhausted; V23 daily_reset declared TERMINAL

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 8f0f99bdda Fix daily bar rebuild to use market-hours close; clean ORB simulator debug code
Two fixes:
1. _rebuild_daily_from_intraday_cache now filters to regular market hours
   (9:30–16:00 ET) before computing OHLCV. Previously used bars[-1] which
   included after-hours data, distorting prev_close for gap calculations.
   Root cause of V23 regression: HIMS Aug-4 after-hours drop to $54.81
   made it appear as a +0.89% gap on Aug 5 instead of the correct -12.85%
   gap (from $63.45 market close), causing it to fail min_abs_gap_pct filter.
   V23 with fix: +109.32%, WR 58.1%, Sharpe 3.01, DD -12.91%

2. Remove temporary debug instrumentation (HIMS/2025-08-05 trace blocks)
   that was left in orb_simulator.py during regression investigation.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 86419beeb0 Fix ORB intraday data pipeline and consolidate strategy configs
- screener: switch from non-existent single-ticker endpoint to multi-ticker
  /alpaca/intraday batch calls (grouped by date, chunk ≤ 75); fixes 0-trades
- cache: bump version 2→3 to invalidate stale IEX Parquet files
- oracle_client: add get_multi_intraday_bars_today() for IEX real-time feed
- paper_trader: use /alpaca/intraday/today for live sessions, /alpaca/intraday
  for historical (SIP)
- intraday.py: define _BUILTIN_STRATEGIES={} to fix /api/orb/strategies import
- delete orb_p1–p10_winner + variant configs; add strategies/orb_default.yaml
  (Phase 10 params) as the single registered web strategy

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 564bcba27c Add ORB pre-market screening and fix Oracle/Alpaca reliability bugs
- Add run_pre_screen() at 9:20 ET: fetch daily bars + enrichment + quality filter
  before market open, narrowing universe for faster orb_detect intraday fetch
- run_orb_detection() uses cached pre-screen data when available; falls back to
  full pipeline if pre_screen missed (late start, failure)
- Add _last_trading_day() helper to skip weekends/holidays for bars_end,
  preventing Alpaca 502 on Mondays (today-1 = Sunday was causing failures)
- Fix Oracle client chunk_size 300→75: Alpaca rejects 100+ ticker URL requests
- Add pre_screen event to build_schedule() at 9:20 ET and dispatch in _run_trading()
- run_session_now() runs pre_screen before orb_detect for efficiency
- Add ORB daemon, engine, models, state, screener, and intraday strategy configs
- Add intraday library (libs/intraday/) and web routes for ORB/intraday trading

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago