126445ae0e
Promote v9.5.36 PEAD champion + prune experiments to 3-tier set; ORB soft-day parity; TGTC infra
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- v9.5.36 promoted: megacap reaction_min 0.02→0.03 on v9.5.20 cap=0.70 base; Full 13,244%/MDD 11.67%/Sharpe 3.579/OOT 304%; clean Pareto win
- Pruned 130 experiment configs → keep 3 (v9.4.5 max-return, v9.5.36 balanced/champion, v9.5.18 cap=0.55 conservative); rebuilt index
- PEAD engine probes: low_vol anomaly + breakout_52w (retained as falsification probes; not promoted)
- Risk analysis: 11.67% MDD confirmed structurally HYMC (6-day giveback, not controllable); per-name cap sweep on next_open_long/reaction_close falsified (0 MDD impact)
- ORB: port soft-day primary-trigger filter to live engine (6-gate parity with simulator)
- TGTC trader infrastructure + advisor service (new)
- ORB v46/v49 sweep configs, intraday scripts, docs
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
3 months ago
65afc95c7e
Clean up: reduce Oracle timeout, fix company endpoint, archive old v7/v15/v16 experiments
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- libs/oracle_client/alpaca.py: reduce bar-fetch timeout 90s→15s (fail fast on Oracle outage)
- libs/oracle_client/client.py: add health_check_fast() for cheap liveness probe; fix health path
- libs/oracle_client/company.py + financial.py: use /api/v1/company/{symbol} (newer endpoint)
- libs/oracle_client/__init__.py: re-export AlpacaSnapshot/get_snapshot/get_snapshots at package level
- configs/experiments: delete archived v15.x, v16.x, v7.119–v7.358 experiment configs (superseded)
- README.md: fix absolute path → relative path for ORB docs link
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
e38c314a09
Add ownership/risk-off sleeves, v17-v19 experiments, and web app restructure
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New features:
- Ownership 13D/13G residual-cash sleeve with PIT calendar and quality filters
- Risk-off alpha sleeve (GLD/DBC rotation on crisis regime signals)
- Crisis relay target in parking: evaluates before defensive relay
- Bearish symbol allocation split (bearish_alloc_pct + sgov remainder)
- Alternative defensive ETF candidate (cash_parking_defensive_alt_symbol)
- Composite eval and engine ablation tools
- experiment and overfit CLI apps
New experiments:
- v17.x series (v17.1 champion SQS 78.4; v17.5–v17.129 exhausted)
- v18.x and v19.x families from v12.8 OOT defense branch
- v7.119 composed variants (idle alpha + ownership + risk-off sleeves)
- parking_only configs: bufb, jepq, merix, regime_tiered
- empty_strategy baseline config
Web app:
- Restructured into routers/services modules (experiments, leaderboard, runs, sqs, docs)
- Ownership sleeve and risk-off sleeve controls in backtest UI
- Frontend: ComposeStrategy page, tradeSleeves lib, idle decomposition display
Research tools:
- Ownership 13D/13G probe and PIT cache builder
- Dividend capture probe and cache builder
- Insider Form4 idle alpha probe
- Alternative ETF parking probe, put-spread overlay probe
- Wikimedia low-attention and peer-relative idle alpha probes
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
fecdc12007
Add earnings surprise feature pipeline and v11 scoring
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New data source integration:
- EarningsSurpriseService: GET /api/v1/earnings/surprise/{symbol}
Returns actual vs estimated EPS with surprise_percentage
- Feature builder: creates earnings_surprise_v1 snapshots for earnings events
- Backfill script runs for existing 1,273 tickers (Alpha Vantage rate limited)
New scoring (v11):
- Small beat (0-3% surprise): +10% bonus (82.4% WR in sample)
- Medium beat (3-8%): +5% bonus
- Big beat (>8%): no bonus (already priced in)
- Miss (<=0%): -5% penalty
Signal validation (n=66 sample):
Small beat: 82.4% WR, +1.79% mean 5d return
Big beat: 54.8% WR, +0.47%
Miss: 55.6% WR, -0.10%
Backfill running (~4 hours). Experiment pending data completion.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
b507fbf499
Add attention client and continue PEAD research
5 months ago
2395a0c0c3
feat: PEAD mid-cap strategy + pipeline hardening + README cleanup
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- Implement PEAD 7% Long+Short strategy with mid-cap universe expansion
- Add Stock Oracle screener/company clients, text sentiment features
- Enhance backtest engine: short-side execution, walk-forward CV, MFE/MAE analysis
- Harden pipeline: sequential Oracle API calls, scoring recalibration (event_quality 65%)
- Add experiment configs for 60+ strategy variants and journal tracking
- Add review/analysis CLI tools
- Remove obsolete dev/phase0-4 design documents and analysis scripts
- Clean README to reflect only implemented features (remove unbuilt adapters/engines)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
0471018dd8
feat: implement ACE-F v1 Phase 1 -- Stock Oracle 기반 이벤트 파이프라인
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Stock Oracle (localhost:18001)을 단일 데이터 소스로 사용하는 미국 주식
이벤트 스윙 트레이딩 시스템의 Phase 1 구현체.
주요 구성:
- libs/oracle_client/: Stock Oracle REST 클라이언트 (filings, price, financial, fred, finra)
- libs/common/: config, logging, time_utils, ids, retries, file_store
- libs/db/: SQLAlchemy 2.0 모델 12개 + Alembic 마이그레이션 0001
- libs/parser/: 규칙 기반 파서 (텍스트 정규화, JSON Schema 검증, LLM 스텁)
- libs/features/: 시장/이벤트 피처 계산기
- apps/pipeline/: filing_poller → filing_fetcher → event_parser → feature_builder
- apps/sync/: macro_sync (FRED), short_volume_sync (FINRA), issuer_sync
- tests/: 단위 81개 + 리플레이 5개 전체 통과, lint clean
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim