12 Commits (2aba6418e6885b9eefeda12bb0079512053a04b4)

Author SHA1 Message Date
I Luk Kim 479eb76308 Update tests for pipeline, backtest engine, paper trader, and new modules
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim b507fbf499 Add attention client and continue PEAD research 5 months ago
I Luk Kim c646303423 Recalibrate public SQS and exposure-aware tracking 5 months ago
I Luk Kim 9ec0b26e10 Implement multi-engine PEAD strategy research workflow 5 months ago
I Luk Kim 2395a0c0c3 feat: PEAD mid-cap strategy + pipeline hardening + README cleanup
- Implement PEAD 7% Long+Short strategy with mid-cap universe expansion
- Add Stock Oracle screener/company clients, text sentiment features
- Enhance backtest engine: short-side execution, walk-forward CV, MFE/MAE analysis
- Harden pipeline: sequential Oracle API calls, scoring recalibration (event_quality 65%)
- Add experiment configs for 60+ strategy variants and journal tracking
- Add review/analysis CLI tools
- Remove obsolete dev/phase0-4 design documents and analysis scripts
- Clean README to reflect only implemented features (remove unbuilt adapters/engines)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim cb19afa87b feat: add strategy improvement tracking system (SQS + journal + leaderboard)
Track experiment cycles with SQS scoring (0-100), JSONL journal, and
auto-generated leaderboard to prevent duplicate experiments and enable
data-driven strategy decisions.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 191653394d feat: scoring cleanup — alpha-only composite, default-deny unknown events, new exit/risk features
Remove 5 non-alpha features (earnings surprise, risk penalty, parse confidence,
direction clarity, LM sentiment) from composite score to eliminate double-counting
with hard gates and noise sources. Redistribute weights to 5 alpha features.

Add default-deny for unknown event types, no-follow-through early exit (D+1),
kill switch log-only mode, macro regime size scaler. Remove SUE gate (Gate 8).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 4d0e773ba0 feat: overhaul strategy — document quality > price momentum
Flip scoring weights so event/document quality is primary signal (55%)
and market confirmation is secondary (35%). Add research mode with
kill-switch cooldown/reset, veto gates for bad events, reduced portfolio
risk, and 4 diagnostic analysis scripts.

Phase A: Research mode kill-switch reset, risk reduction (0.5%/trade,
max 4 positions), bullish-only direction for all event types.

Phase B: 2 new sub-scorers (parse_confidence, direction_clarity),
4 veto gates (oneoff risk, parse confidence, unknown/bearish direction).

Phase C: signal_quality, event_type_decomposition, kill_switch_impact,
concurrent_position analysis scripts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim cdf6ae3493 feat: Phase 5 fundamental strategy improvements
Fix core strategy flaws identified from academic research and Phase 4
backtest results (23% win rate, 0% target hits, 77% stop exits).

5A — Exit mechanics: ATR-based targets (reachable ~4.5% vs unreachable ~6-8%),
     partial profit-taking at target with breakeven stop on remainder,
     wider catastrophic stop (3.0 ATR), trailing stop enabled by default.
5B — Event-type-specific logic: EventTypeProfile with per-type overrides
     for holding days, ATR multipliers, score thresholds, direction filter.
     Disabled management_change and other_material_event (low evidence).
5C-1 — Expanded universe from 15 to 97 symbols across sectors including
       mid-cap growth where PEAD is stronger.
5C-3 — Bootstrap 95% confidence intervals for key trade metrics.
5D — SUE integration: earnings surprise scoring (eps_growth_qoq) at 10%
     weight, entry gate blocks negative EPS surprise for earnings events.
5F — Extended label horizons to 10D/20D with Alembic migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim d4ae900286 feat: expand data pipeline and integrate event features into scoring
Data expansion:
- Poll SEC 8-K filings from 2025-10-01 to 2026-03-12 (was ~2 months)
- Pipeline: 36 new filings → 24 new events → total 44 events, 15 symbols
- Re-export with merged features (market_v1+event_v1+financial_v1)
- Parquet columns: 7 → 41 (adds signal_strength, guidance_direction,
  document_quality, oneoff_penalty, eps_growth_qoq, etc.)

Score model v2:
- Add event quality component (15% weight): signal_strength_score,
  guidance_direction_score, document_quality_score
- Add risk penalty component (10% weight): inverted oneoff_penalty
- Rebalance market weights: reaction 25%, close 25%, volume 15%, gap 10%
- Graceful degradation when event features are absent (returns 0.5)

Export pipeline:
- Add --feature-versions CLI flag to merge multiple feature types
- export_dataset_snapshot() accepts feature_versions list parameter
- Groups features by event_id and merges feature_json dicts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 354f7a1716 feat: add rule-based entry score model for backtester
Replace naive abs(reaction_day_return) fallback with a composite score
from 4 market microstructure features available at entry time:

  1. Reaction quality  (35%) — moderate positive return (PEAD zone) is
     ideal; extreme positives penalized as "priced in"
  2. Close strength    (30%) — close near session high = buyers won
  3. Volume conviction (20%) — 1.2-2x is healthy; >3x is exhaustion
  4. Gap quality       (15%) — small positive gap = orderly strength

Real data results (14 events, b1868603 snapshot):
  - Score filters out 6 of 10 losers (DDOG -11.7%, META -9.1%, etc.)
  - With threshold 0.5: return -2.63% → +0.27%, drawdown 4.24% → 0.86%
  - Profit factor 0.44 → 1.16 (turns profitable)
  - MSFT loss (-8.7%) is macro-driven, not predictable from stock features

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 2f4d9f61f7 feat: implement Phase 4 -- event-driven backtester
Full backtesting engine that reads Parquet snapshots and simulates a
swing-trading strategy with no look-ahead bias.

## New modules (libs/backtest/)
- domain.py: All Pydantic v2 models (Candidate, PlannedOrder, FilledTrade,
  OpenPosition, DailyPortfolioState, MetricsBundle, BacktestConfig, etc.)
- calendar.py: Thin wrappers over time_utils + reaction_date
- manifests.py: Config load/deep-merge/validate, run-ID generation
- metrics.py: 21 pure-function metrics (no pandas, stdlib statistics only)
- selector.py: build_candidate(), rank_candidates() (score↓ ADV↓ symbol↑)
- allocator.py: 7-gate run_entry_gates(), ATR stop, floor() shares
- execution.py: simulate_entry/exit(), update_trailing_stop() (ratchet-up only)
- splits.py: Walk-forward windows, year/regime split utilities
- snapshot_store.py: Sync load() → asyncio.run(_async_load()), no look-ahead
- artifacts.py: Full run-dir writer (Parquet, CSV, JSON)

## App modules (apps/backtester/)
- run.py: BacktestRunner (exit-first→entry simulation, 25% kill switch) + CLI
- replay.py: Double-run determinism checker

## Config files
- configs/backtest/defaults.json: Base strategy defaults
- configs/experiments/baseline_v1.json: First experiment manifest

## Tests: 142 new tests, all passing
- 132 unit tests (no DB/HTTP required)
- 8 integration tests (synthetic SnapshotStore)
- 3 backtest determinism/replay tests

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago