15 Commits (bba1ce6789cedb67b53122a47ba8fdf206d90340)

Author SHA1 Message Date
I Luk Kim e38c314a09 Add ownership/risk-off sleeves, v17-v19 experiments, and web app restructure
New features:
- Ownership 13D/13G residual-cash sleeve with PIT calendar and quality filters
- Risk-off alpha sleeve (GLD/DBC rotation on crisis regime signals)
- Crisis relay target in parking: evaluates before defensive relay
- Bearish symbol allocation split (bearish_alloc_pct + sgov remainder)
- Alternative defensive ETF candidate (cash_parking_defensive_alt_symbol)
- Composite eval and engine ablation tools
- experiment and overfit CLI apps

New experiments:
- v17.x series (v17.1 champion SQS 78.4; v17.5–v17.129 exhausted)
- v18.x and v19.x families from v12.8 OOT defense branch
- v7.119 composed variants (idle alpha + ownership + risk-off sleeves)
- parking_only configs: bufb, jepq, merix, regime_tiered
- empty_strategy baseline config

Web app:
- Restructured into routers/services modules (experiments, leaderboard, runs, sqs, docs)
- Ownership sleeve and risk-off sleeve controls in backtest UI
- Frontend: ComposeStrategy page, tradeSleeves lib, idle decomposition display

Research tools:
- Ownership 13D/13G probe and PIT cache builder
- Dividend capture probe and cache builder
- Insider Form4 idle alpha probe
- Alternative ETF parking probe, put-spread overlay probe
- Wikimedia low-attention and peer-relative idle alpha probes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim f2113b7e06 Fix cash parking phantom-money bug + live engine parking liquidation for events
Backtester (run.py):
- cash_available = (self._cash + parking_value) * multiplier caused trades to be
  approved even when self._cash ≈ 0 (all money in SGOV/QQQ).  Trades executed
  by deducting from self._cash → negative cash (phantom money).
- Fix: after simulate_entry, if self._cash < actual trade cost and parking exists,
  call _liquidate_parking_for_cash(shortfall) before deducting from cash.
- Verified: 2022-2026 backtest with qqqm_low_dd shows 0 cash_negative events.

Live engine (engine.py):
- Add _parking_liquidate_for_event(): frees parking cash to fund event entries.
  SGOV (virtual) reduces entry_value in DB; QQQM/QQQ sells real shares via broker.
- Both entry loops (engines mode + flat/reaction_close mode) now attempt parking
  liquidation when plan.skip_reason == "insufficient_cash" before giving up.

Also includes prior session work (accumulated since last commit):
- 6 novel parking gate signals: VRP, Market Temperature, Hurst exponent, Rolling
  Kurtosis, Return Autocorrelation, SPY-QQQ Correlation (composite risk score v2)
- QQQM parking symbol support (lower expense ratio vs QQQ)
- Snapshot auto-refresh + bar extension cache (pickle) to avoid 10-min re-fetches
- Bar extension clamps to last market-closed date (ET 4PM check)
- fithia2 refresh command; --no-refresh flag for paper backtest
- Paper backtest macro extension beyond last event date (parking-only periods)
- parking_state DB schema: 7 new columns (peak_price, gate_in_sgov,
  committed_target, pending_target, pending_days, sgov_entry_value, sold_today)
- Live engine: target confirmation (2-day), top-up drawdown gate, trailing stop,
  SGOV interest accrual, full 6-signal gate evaluation
- New PARKING_PRESETS: qqqm_low_dd, composite_v2, vv_24_vrp8, vt_24_t13, etc.
- Web GUI / CLI result parity fix (Oracle URL via get_settings().stock_oracle_url)
- Force-close uses last_exec_date (has bar data); parking liquidates at last_date

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 479eb76308 Update tests for pipeline, backtest engine, paper trader, and new modules
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 02542248b7 Add attention-aware PEAD caps and promote step75 5 months ago
I Luk Kim b507fbf499 Add attention client and continue PEAD research 5 months ago
I Luk Kim c646303423 Recalibrate public SQS and exposure-aware tracking 5 months ago
I Luk Kim 9ec0b26e10 Implement multi-engine PEAD strategy research workflow 5 months ago
I Luk Kim 2395a0c0c3 feat: PEAD mid-cap strategy + pipeline hardening + README cleanup
- Implement PEAD 7% Long+Short strategy with mid-cap universe expansion
- Add Stock Oracle screener/company clients, text sentiment features
- Enhance backtest engine: short-side execution, walk-forward CV, MFE/MAE analysis
- Harden pipeline: sequential Oracle API calls, scoring recalibration (event_quality 65%)
- Add experiment configs for 60+ strategy variants and journal tracking
- Add review/analysis CLI tools
- Remove obsolete dev/phase0-4 design documents and analysis scripts
- Clean README to reflect only implemented features (remove unbuilt adapters/engines)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 867d70afae fix: correct simulation loop and equity curve calculation after real-data testing
- BacktestRunner.run() now iterates all NYSE trading days (not just candidate
  days) via SnapshotStore.all_trading_days() so stop/target/time exits are
  checked every day, not only on days with new candidates
- Record initial DailyPortfolioState before simulation loop starts so
  total_return_pct is computed relative to the true initial equity (100k),
  not the first post-entry equity snapshot
- SnapshotStore._fetch_event_metadata() now synthesises event_timestamp from
  event_date + 21:00 UTC when filed_at_utc is NULL (transparent enrichment at
  loader boundary, not silent substitution in selector)
- SnapshotStore._async_load() maps event_close → entry_price_est when the
  column is absent, and derives score from abs(reaction_day_return) when the
  Parquet snapshot has no score column
- Add --snapshot-dir CLI flag to BacktestRunner to override the default
  parquet_dir base path (needed for non-standard snapshot locations)
- Fix integration test assertion: total_trading_days >= 2 (was == 2)
- Add configs/experiments/realdata_test_v1.json for real Phase 3 snapshot runs

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 2f4d9f61f7 feat: implement Phase 4 -- event-driven backtester
Full backtesting engine that reads Parquet snapshots and simulates a
swing-trading strategy with no look-ahead bias.

## New modules (libs/backtest/)
- domain.py: All Pydantic v2 models (Candidate, PlannedOrder, FilledTrade,
  OpenPosition, DailyPortfolioState, MetricsBundle, BacktestConfig, etc.)
- calendar.py: Thin wrappers over time_utils + reaction_date
- manifests.py: Config load/deep-merge/validate, run-ID generation
- metrics.py: 21 pure-function metrics (no pandas, stdlib statistics only)
- selector.py: build_candidate(), rank_candidates() (score↓ ADV↓ symbol↑)
- allocator.py: 7-gate run_entry_gates(), ATR stop, floor() shares
- execution.py: simulate_entry/exit(), update_trailing_stop() (ratchet-up only)
- splits.py: Walk-forward windows, year/regime split utilities
- snapshot_store.py: Sync load() → asyncio.run(_async_load()), no look-ahead
- artifacts.py: Full run-dir writer (Parquet, CSV, JSON)

## App modules (apps/backtester/)
- run.py: BacktestRunner (exit-first→entry simulation, 25% kill switch) + CLI
- replay.py: Double-run determinism checker

## Config files
- configs/backtest/defaults.json: Base strategy defaults
- configs/experiments/baseline_v1.json: First experiment manifest

## Tests: 142 new tests, all passing
- 132 unit tests (no DB/HTTP required)
- 8 integration tests (synthetic SnapshotStore)
- 3 backtest determinism/replay tests

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim f69a8b4731 fix: use TEST-prefixed IDs in integration tests to avoid real-data conflicts
Integration tests used ISSUER::0000320193 (Apple's real CIK) and
SYM::AAPL::XNYS as hardcoded IDs. After the real pipeline inserts
actual AAPL data, subsequent test runs fail with UniqueViolationError
since the db_session rollback only undoes intra-test writes.

Changed to ISSUER::TEST::0000320193 and SYM::AAPL::XNYS (distinct
from the real SYM::AAPL::US) while keeping ticker="AAPL" so the
Oracle price service returns real price data for label/feature tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim bbe0e31150 feat: implement Phase 3 -- LLM enrichment, labeler, review queue, dataset export
- libs/llm/: OllamaClient (httpx async, retry), LLMCacheStore (SHA-256 DB cache),
  prompt registry (event_classifier_v1), LLMParser (cache→prompt→validate→repair)
- libs/parser/merger.py: rule+LLM canonical merge with provenance tracking,
  conflict detection (both confident + disagree), should_queue_for_review()
- libs/db/models.py: LLMCallCache, ReviewItem, EventLabel 3개 ORM 모델 추가
- libs/db/migrations/versions/0002_phase3_tables.py: Phase 3 Alembic migration
- libs/labeler/: filing_time_bucket→reaction_date, 1D/3D/5D fwd return, MFE/MAE
- libs/review/queue.py: create(dedup)/resolve/list ReviewItem
- libs/export/snapshot_export.py: temporal split + Parquet + manifest.json
- apps/: label_generator, dataset_export, review CLI, gold set evaluator
- 42개 신규 테스트 추가 (unit 32 + integration 4 + replay 1) — 152/152 통과
- libs/common/config.py: OLLAMA_URL/MODEL/TIMEOUT 설정 추가
- libs/common/logging.py: bugfix — add_logger_name incompatible with PrintLoggerFactory

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 7fed850fbf test: Phase 1/2 체크리스트 재작성 및 Oracle 실연동 통합 테스트
- Oracle 서비스 어댑터 5개를 실제 API 포맷에 맞게 수정
  - 모든 경로에 /api/v1/ prefix 추가
  - price: data[] → bars 매핑, volume float→int
  - filings: accession_number→accession_no, total_count→total
  - financial: financial_data[] → periods, period_date 파싱
  - finra: entries[] → data 매핑
  - fred: data.observations 언패킹, value string→float (버그 수정 포함)
- fixtures 6개를 실제 Oracle 응답 포맷으로 전면 교체
- 통합 테스트에서 httpx_mock 완전 제거 → 실제 Oracle 직접 호출
- 신규 단위 테스트 3개 파일 추가 (logging, fred_service, llm_parser_stub)
- test_retries.py에 exhaustion 테스트 추가
- test_oracle_client.py에 connection/timeout/no-ctx 테스트 추가
- Phase 1/2 testing_checklist.md 실제 구현 기준으로 전면 재작성
- 전체 114 tests pass (unit 100 + replay 5 + integration 9)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 32a845044c fix: integration test isolation and migration server_default escaping
- Fix all JSONB/text server_default values to use sa.text() wrapper to
  prevent double-escaping in Alembic-generated SQL
- Replace testcontainers with direct docker-compose postgres connection in
  integration conftest, removing asyncio.run() from async fixture context
- Change db_engine/db_session to function-scoped with explicit transaction
  rollback for proper per-test isolation
- Flush IssuerMaster before Document insert to respect FK ordering

All 94 tests pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 0471018dd8 feat: implement ACE-F v1 Phase 1 -- Stock Oracle 기반 이벤트 파이프라인
Stock Oracle (localhost:18001)을 단일 데이터 소스로 사용하는 미국 주식
이벤트 스윙 트레이딩 시스템의 Phase 1 구현체.

주요 구성:
- libs/oracle_client/: Stock Oracle REST 클라이언트 (filings, price, financial, fred, finra)
- libs/common/: config, logging, time_utils, ids, retries, file_store
- libs/db/: SQLAlchemy 2.0 모델 12개 + Alembic 마이그레이션 0001
- libs/parser/: 규칙 기반 파서 (텍스트 정규화, JSON Schema 검증, LLM 스텁)
- libs/features/: 시장/이벤트 피처 계산기
- apps/pipeline/: filing_poller → filing_fetcher → event_parser → feature_builder
- apps/sync/: macro_sync (FRED), short_volume_sync (FINRA), issuer_sync
- tests/: 단위 81개 + 리플레이 5개 전체 통과, lint clean

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago