9 Commits (cccbf88067bb6c3e9e02b7967f400d538289eaa0)

Author SHA1 Message Date
I Luk Kim b3ba914a8d Optimize v7 strategy: v7.356 achieves CW 2159% + SQS 90.7 (Pareto improvement over v7.314)
Key changes from v7.314 baseline (CW 2012%, SQS 90.0):
- max_position_value_pct 15→25, non_a_tier_target_1_fraction 0.2→0
- max_daily_new_risk_pct 30→50 (via v7.330, CW champion 2148%)
- bullish_raised_recovery per_trade_risk_pct 0.71→0.55 (DD improvement)
- bullish_raised_recovery max_holding_days 12→10 (sweet spot, +98pp CW)

Result: v7.356 CW 2159% (+147pp), SQS 90.7 (+0.7), risk 66.2 (+2.9), robustness 94.3 (+0.5)
All metrics improved simultaneously — return increase AND DD reduction achieved.

Also includes: web UI updates, pipeline scripts, v16/v17/v18/v19 experiment pruning,
Form4 preset additions, snapshot registry updates, domain.py enhancements.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 2aba6418e6 Add overlay engine, ranking models, snapshot pipelines, and research tools
New libs: overlay curve builder, ranking models, continuation/merged
snapshot export, intraday features. New tools: overlay evaluator,
ranking model builder, deep evaluation, fullsplit batch runner.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 784c581f19 Enhance backtest engine: v11 scoring, selector expansion, snapshot store improvements
Extends selector with new scoring model support, adds execution
enhancements, and improves snapshot store loading and split handling.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 2395a0c0c3 feat: PEAD mid-cap strategy + pipeline hardening + README cleanup
- Implement PEAD 7% Long+Short strategy with mid-cap universe expansion
- Add Stock Oracle screener/company clients, text sentiment features
- Enhance backtest engine: short-side execution, walk-forward CV, MFE/MAE analysis
- Harden pipeline: sequential Oracle API calls, scoring recalibration (event_quality 65%)
- Add experiment configs for 60+ strategy variants and journal tracking
- Add review/analysis CLI tools
- Remove obsolete dev/phase0-4 design documents and analysis scripts
- Clean README to reflect only implemented features (remove unbuilt adapters/engines)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 191653394d feat: scoring cleanup — alpha-only composite, default-deny unknown events, new exit/risk features
Remove 5 non-alpha features (earnings surprise, risk penalty, parse confidence,
direction clarity, LM sentiment) from composite score to eliminate double-counting
with hard gates and noise sources. Redistribute weights to 5 alpha features.

Add default-deny for unknown event types, no-follow-through early exit (D+1),
kill switch log-only mode, macro regime size scaler. Remove SUE gate (Gate 8).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 3779be78e3 fix: kill switch research mode reset + adjust veto threshold
- Fix kill switch reset: remove unreachable drawdown recovery condition
  (equity can't change while trading is halted), reset peak_equity and
  drawdown_pct to 0 on cooldown expiry
- Raise veto_oneoff_penalty threshold 0.5 → 0.7 (was blocking 67% of
  candidates due to high median oneoff_penalty in dataset)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 4d0e773ba0 feat: overhaul strategy — document quality > price momentum
Flip scoring weights so event/document quality is primary signal (55%)
and market confirmation is secondary (35%). Add research mode with
kill-switch cooldown/reset, veto gates for bad events, reduced portfolio
risk, and 4 diagnostic analysis scripts.

Phase A: Research mode kill-switch reset, risk reduction (0.5%/trade,
max 4 positions), bullish-only direction for all event types.

Phase B: 2 new sub-scorers (parse_confidence, direction_clarity),
4 veto gates (oneoff risk, parse confidence, unknown/bearish direction).

Phase C: signal_quality, event_type_decomposition, kill_switch_impact,
concurrent_position analysis scripts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim cdf6ae3493 feat: Phase 5 fundamental strategy improvements
Fix core strategy flaws identified from academic research and Phase 4
backtest results (23% win rate, 0% target hits, 77% stop exits).

5A — Exit mechanics: ATR-based targets (reachable ~4.5% vs unreachable ~6-8%),
     partial profit-taking at target with breakeven stop on remainder,
     wider catastrophic stop (3.0 ATR), trailing stop enabled by default.
5B — Event-type-specific logic: EventTypeProfile with per-type overrides
     for holding days, ATR multipliers, score thresholds, direction filter.
     Disabled management_change and other_material_event (low evidence).
5C-1 — Expanded universe from 15 to 97 symbols across sectors including
       mid-cap growth where PEAD is stronger.
5C-3 — Bootstrap 95% confidence intervals for key trade metrics.
5D — SUE integration: earnings surprise scoring (eps_growth_qoq) at 10%
     weight, entry gate blocks negative EPS surprise for earnings events.
5F — Extended label horizons to 10D/20D with Alembic migration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 2f4d9f61f7 feat: implement Phase 4 -- event-driven backtester
Full backtesting engine that reads Parquet snapshots and simulates a
swing-trading strategy with no look-ahead bias.

## New modules (libs/backtest/)
- domain.py: All Pydantic v2 models (Candidate, PlannedOrder, FilledTrade,
  OpenPosition, DailyPortfolioState, MetricsBundle, BacktestConfig, etc.)
- calendar.py: Thin wrappers over time_utils + reaction_date
- manifests.py: Config load/deep-merge/validate, run-ID generation
- metrics.py: 21 pure-function metrics (no pandas, stdlib statistics only)
- selector.py: build_candidate(), rank_candidates() (score↓ ADV↓ symbol↑)
- allocator.py: 7-gate run_entry_gates(), ATR stop, floor() shares
- execution.py: simulate_entry/exit(), update_trailing_stop() (ratchet-up only)
- splits.py: Walk-forward windows, year/regime split utilities
- snapshot_store.py: Sync load() → asyncio.run(_async_load()), no look-ahead
- artifacts.py: Full run-dir writer (Parquet, CSV, JSON)

## App modules (apps/backtester/)
- run.py: BacktestRunner (exit-first→entry simulation, 25% kill switch) + CLI
- replay.py: Double-run determinism checker

## Config files
- configs/backtest/defaults.json: Base strategy defaults
- configs/experiments/baseline_v1.json: First experiment manifest

## Tests: 142 new tests, all passing
- 132 unit tests (no DB/HTTP required)
- 8 integration tests (synthetic SnapshotStore)
- 3 backtest determinism/replay tests

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago