2 Commits (d4ae9002869cd9c9000abb28a21e9a385a42a3b4)

Author SHA1 Message Date
I Luk Kim d4ae900286 feat: expand data pipeline and integrate event features into scoring
Data expansion:
- Poll SEC 8-K filings from 2025-10-01 to 2026-03-12 (was ~2 months)
- Pipeline: 36 new filings → 24 new events → total 44 events, 15 symbols
- Re-export with merged features (market_v1+event_v1+financial_v1)
- Parquet columns: 7 → 41 (adds signal_strength, guidance_direction,
  document_quality, oneoff_penalty, eps_growth_qoq, etc.)

Score model v2:
- Add event quality component (15% weight): signal_strength_score,
  guidance_direction_score, document_quality_score
- Add risk penalty component (10% weight): inverted oneoff_penalty
- Rebalance market weights: reaction 25%, close 25%, volume 15%, gap 10%
- Graceful degradation when event features are absent (returns 0.5)

Export pipeline:
- Add --feature-versions CLI flag to merge multiple feature types
- export_dataset_snapshot() accepts feature_versions list parameter
- Groups features by event_id and merges feature_json dicts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 354f7a1716 feat: add rule-based entry score model for backtester
Replace naive abs(reaction_day_return) fallback with a composite score
from 4 market microstructure features available at entry time:

  1. Reaction quality  (35%) — moderate positive return (PEAD zone) is
     ideal; extreme positives penalized as "priced in"
  2. Close strength    (30%) — close near session high = buyers won
  3. Volume conviction (20%) — 1.2-2x is healthy; >3x is exhaustion
  4. Gap quality       (15%) — small positive gap = orderly strength

Real data results (14 events, b1868603 snapshot):
  - Score filters out 6 of 10 losers (DDOG -11.7%, META -9.1%, etc.)
  - With threshold 0.5: return -2.63% → +0.27%, drawdown 4.24% → 0.86%
  - Profit factor 0.44 → 1.16 (turns profitable)
  - MSFT loss (-8.7%) is macro-driven, not predictable from stock features

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago