11 Commits (d83a666f308895a55ff841fce34b89deb10e9839)

Author SHA1 Message Date
I Luk Kim 236148de2e Remove momentum breakout sleeve (overfitting, valid -31%) and revert related code
- Delete v7.360-v7.363 experiment configs (rotation/momentum tests)
- Remove _schedule_momentum_breakout_candidates() from backtester run.py
- Remove MomentumBreakoutConfig from domain.py
- Delete momentum_calendar.py, momentum_screener.py, build_momentum_calendar.py
- Delete data/momentum_calendar/ parquet data

Valid period performance was -31.36% vs +152.4% baseline — sleeve is not viable
without walk-forward validation. Abandoning for now.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 5496059b6c Add v7.120 composed GLD experiment updates 4 months ago
I Luk Kim 5cb2b9fcb8 Add non-core allocator v2 and Form4 freshness presets 4 months ago
I Luk Kim e38c314a09 Add ownership/risk-off sleeves, v17-v19 experiments, and web app restructure
New features:
- Ownership 13D/13G residual-cash sleeve with PIT calendar and quality filters
- Risk-off alpha sleeve (GLD/DBC rotation on crisis regime signals)
- Crisis relay target in parking: evaluates before defensive relay
- Bearish symbol allocation split (bearish_alloc_pct + sgov remainder)
- Alternative defensive ETF candidate (cash_parking_defensive_alt_symbol)
- Composite eval and engine ablation tools
- experiment and overfit CLI apps

New experiments:
- v17.x series (v17.1 champion SQS 78.4; v17.5–v17.129 exhausted)
- v18.x and v19.x families from v12.8 OOT defense branch
- v7.119 composed variants (idle alpha + ownership + risk-off sleeves)
- parking_only configs: bufb, jepq, merix, regime_tiered
- empty_strategy baseline config

Web app:
- Restructured into routers/services modules (experiments, leaderboard, runs, sqs, docs)
- Ownership sleeve and risk-off sleeve controls in backtest UI
- Frontend: ComposeStrategy page, tradeSleeves lib, idle decomposition display

Research tools:
- Ownership 13D/13G probe and PIT cache builder
- Dividend capture probe and cache builder
- Insider Form4 idle alpha probe
- Alternative ETF parking probe, put-spread overlay probe
- Wikimedia low-attention and peer-relative idle alpha probes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
4 months ago
I Luk Kim 72681e69e5 Add Form4 residual-cash sleeve and UI support 4 months ago
I Luk Kim f2113b7e06 Fix cash parking phantom-money bug + live engine parking liquidation for events
Backtester (run.py):
- cash_available = (self._cash + parking_value) * multiplier caused trades to be
  approved even when self._cash ≈ 0 (all money in SGOV/QQQ).  Trades executed
  by deducting from self._cash → negative cash (phantom money).
- Fix: after simulate_entry, if self._cash < actual trade cost and parking exists,
  call _liquidate_parking_for_cash(shortfall) before deducting from cash.
- Verified: 2022-2026 backtest with qqqm_low_dd shows 0 cash_negative events.

Live engine (engine.py):
- Add _parking_liquidate_for_event(): frees parking cash to fund event entries.
  SGOV (virtual) reduces entry_value in DB; QQQM/QQQ sells real shares via broker.
- Both entry loops (engines mode + flat/reaction_close mode) now attempt parking
  liquidation when plan.skip_reason == "insufficient_cash" before giving up.

Also includes prior session work (accumulated since last commit):
- 6 novel parking gate signals: VRP, Market Temperature, Hurst exponent, Rolling
  Kurtosis, Return Autocorrelation, SPY-QQQ Correlation (composite risk score v2)
- QQQM parking symbol support (lower expense ratio vs QQQ)
- Snapshot auto-refresh + bar extension cache (pickle) to avoid 10-min re-fetches
- Bar extension clamps to last market-closed date (ET 4PM check)
- fithia2 refresh command; --no-refresh flag for paper backtest
- Paper backtest macro extension beyond last event date (parking-only periods)
- parking_state DB schema: 7 new columns (peak_price, gate_in_sgov,
  committed_target, pending_target, pending_days, sgov_entry_value, sold_today)
- Live engine: target confirmation (2-day), top-up drawdown gate, trailing stop,
  SGOV interest accrual, full 6-signal gate evaluation
- New PARKING_PRESETS: qqqm_low_dd, composite_v2, vv_24_vrp8, vt_24_t13, etc.
- Web GUI / CLI result parity fix (Oracle URL via get_settings().stock_oracle_url)
- Force-close uses last_exec_date (has bar data); parking liquidates at last_date

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 76581ead04 Remove overlay backtesting and scoring 5 months ago
I Luk Kim 2aba6418e6 Add overlay engine, ranking models, snapshot pipelines, and research tools
New libs: overlay curve builder, ranking models, continuation/merged
snapshot export, intraday features. New tools: overlay evaluator,
ranking model builder, deep evaluation, fullsplit batch runner.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim 784c581f19 Enhance backtest engine: v11 scoring, selector expansion, snapshot store improvements
Extends selector with new scoring model support, adds execution
enhancements, and improves snapshot store loading and split handling.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
I Luk Kim b507fbf499 Add attention client and continue PEAD research 5 months ago
I Luk Kim 2395a0c0c3 feat: PEAD mid-cap strategy + pipeline hardening + README cleanup
- Implement PEAD 7% Long+Short strategy with mid-cap universe expansion
- Add Stock Oracle screener/company clients, text sentiment features
- Enhance backtest engine: short-side execution, walk-forward CV, MFE/MAE analysis
- Harden pipeline: sequential Oracle API calls, scoring recalibration (event_quality 65%)
- Add experiment configs for 60+ strategy variants and journal tracking
- Add review/analysis CLI tools
- Remove obsolete dev/phase0-4 design documents and analysis scripts
- Clean README to reflect only implemented features (remove unbuilt adapters/engines)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago