_meta: id: 37 name: "ORB Gainers V23 Safe v9" status: validated_200d_only parent: orb_gainers_v23_safe_v8 description: > V23 Safe v9 — v8 + streak_sizing_win_bonus: 0.70 (V23 level streak sizing). VALIDATED champion of the Safe family on 200d window ONLY (2026-04-21). 주의: 400d에서는 V23이 모든 지표에서 완전히 우월 — +146% vs +101%, DD -13.7% vs -17.2%. v9는 200d 단기 보수적 대안으로만 유효. 실전 배포 기준은 V23. Safe v8 결과: +82.36%, DD -7.72%, Sharpe 3.14 — V23 Sharpe(3.01)보다 높고 DD는 5pp 낮음. 단, 수익은 V23(+109.32%)보다 27pp 낮음. 차이 원인: V23의 streak sizing(win_bonus=0.70). V23에서 streak_sizing은 핵심 수익 증폭기 (V19→V21 승진에 기여). v9 가설: v8 safe mechanisms(partial_exit + rolling_loss-2% + max_sim=2) + V23의 streak_sizing(0.70) = +100%+ 수익 AND DD < V23 -12.91%? 200d 결과 (2025-07-03→2026-04-20): +101.25%, DD -7.62%, WR 58.06%, Sharpe 3.34 worst_day -$324, trade_days 46/200, 124 trades. 400d 결과 (2024-09-13→2026-04-20): +101.01%, DD -17.20%, WR 57.08%, Sharpe 1.99 profit_factor 1.77, worst_day -6.11%, 226 trades, 93 trade days. 400d gate: DD -17.20% ≤ -18% ✓ AND return +101% ≥ +90% ✓ → PROMOTED. V23 대비 (200d): DD -5.29pp 개선 (-7.62% vs -12.91%); Sharpe +0.33 우위; 수익은 -8pp 낮음 (-101.25% vs +109.32%). *** 2026-04-21 UPDATE: V23 TRUE 400d result confirmed with correct pipeline *** V23 400d TRUE: +146.09%, DD -13.66%, Sharpe 2.33 (vs v9: +101.01%, DD -17.20%, Sharpe 1.99) V23 STRICTLY DOMINATES Safe v9 on 400d in return (+45pp), DD (+3.5pp better), and Sharpe. "Risk-adjusted superior" claim is ONLY valid on 200d window. On 400d, V23 is also safer. V23 is the absolute champion. v9 remains valid as 200d conservative alternative only. strategy_mode: orb orb_strategy: engine_family: gainers_leader live_readiness: experimental orb_minutes: 5 sim_bar_minutes: 5 entry_direction: long_only order_timeout_minutes: 45 allow_doji_breakout: true allow_red_to_green_breakout: true min_price: 10.0 min_avg_dollar_volume: 25000000 min_atr_14: 0.50 min_atr_pct: 0.04 min_rvol: 1.5 min_abs_gap_pct: 0.02 min_premarket_dollar_vol: 1500000 max_candidates: 20 max_candidates_per_sector: 3 min_candidates_to_trade: 1 ticker_cooldown_days: 0 max_gap_pct: 0.04 min_candidate_breadth: 0.60 market_regime_spy_threshold: 0.0015 market_regime_ticker: QQQ rolling_loss_days: 7 rolling_loss_threshold: -0.02 max_simultaneous_entries: 2 min_breakout_rel_vol: 1.2 weight_rvol: 0.35 weight_gap: 0.20 weight_dollar_vol: 0.05 weight_premarket_dollar_vol: 0.25 weight_body_ratio: 0.0 weight_momentum: 0.15 atr_stop_multiplier: 0.75 breakeven_at_r: 1.0 trailing_at_r: 1.0 trailing_stop_atr_multiplier: 0.8 trailing_tighten_at_r: 2.0 trailing_stop_atr_multiplier_tight: 0.3 partial_exit_at_r: 1.0 partial_exit_pct: 0.50 risk_per_trade_pct: 0.05 max_position_pct: 0.70 daily_max_loss_pct: 0.02 max_stops_per_day: 3 exit_minutes_before_close: 5 slippage_bps: 5.0 initial_capital: 10000 compound_returns: false daily_budget_reset: true settlement_days: 1 drawdown_governor_threshold: 0.015 drawdown_governor_min_scale: 0.50 # === KEY CHANGE: enable streak sizing (V23 level) === streak_sizing_win_bonus: 0.70 streak_sizing_max: 2.5 universe: source: midlarge backtest: start_date: null end_date: null lookback_trading_days: 200 cache: enabled: true dir: data/cache/intraday output: dir: runs/intraday_orb verbose: false