"""Fill simulation for entries and exits, plus shared execution helpers.""" from __future__ import annotations import datetime as dt import math import uuid from typing import Any from libs.backtest.domain import ( BacktestConfig, Candidate, ExecutionConfig, ExitReason, FilledTrade, OpenPosition, PlannedOrder, PositionStatus, ) from libs.common.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Slippage helpers # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def _long_entry_fill(open_price: float, slippage_bps: float) -> float: """Buy at open + slippage (pays more).""" return open_price * (1.0 + slippage_bps / 10_000) def _long_exit_fill(price: float, slippage_bps: float) -> float: """Sell at price - slippage (receives less).""" return price * (1.0 - slippage_bps / 10_000) def _short_entry_fill(open_price: float, slippage_bps: float) -> float: """Sell short at open - slippage (receives less).""" return open_price * (1.0 - slippage_bps / 10_000) def _short_exit_fill(price: float, slippage_bps: float) -> float: """Buy to cover at price + slippage (pays more).""" return price * (1.0 + slippage_bps / 10_000) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Entry simulation # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def simulate_entry( plan: PlannedOrder, bar: dict[str, Any], config: ExecutionConfig, position_id: str | None = None, ) -> OpenPosition | None: """Simulate filling a planned entry at the bar's open or reaction close. Returns None (position NOT opened) if bar is missing or the required price is invalid. No zero imputation — missing bar = no entry. """ if bar is None: logger.warning("entry_skip_missing_bar", event_id=plan.candidate.event_id) return None if plan.skip_reason is not None: logger.debug("entry_skip_gate_rejected", reason=plan.skip_reason) return None if plan.shares <= 0: logger.warning("entry_skip_zero_shares", event_id=plan.candidate.event_id) return None entry_policy = plan.entry_timing_policy or "next_open" if entry_policy == "reaction_close": reference_price = bar.get("close") if reference_price is None or reference_price <= 0: logger.warning("entry_skip_invalid_close", event_id=plan.candidate.event_id, bar=bar) return None else: reference_price = bar.get("open") if reference_price is None or reference_price <= 0: logger.warning("entry_skip_invalid_open", event_id=plan.candidate.event_id, bar=bar) return None is_short = plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" if is_short: fill_price = _short_entry_fill(float(reference_price), config.slippage_bps_base) else: fill_price = _long_entry_fill(float(reference_price), config.slippage_bps_base) slippage_bps_actual = abs(fill_price / float(reference_price) - 1.0) * 10_000 pid = position_id or str(uuid.uuid4()) # entry_date here is the bar date (execution_date of the candidate) bar_date_raw = bar.get("date") if isinstance(bar_date_raw, str): entry_date = dt.date.fromisoformat(bar_date_raw) elif isinstance(bar_date_raw, dt.date): entry_date = bar_date_raw else: entry_date = plan.candidate.execution_date return OpenPosition( position_id=pid, plan=plan, entry_date=entry_date, entry_price=fill_price, entry_fill_slippage_bps=slippage_bps_actual, current_stop=plan.stop_price, target_price=plan.target_price, peak_price=fill_price, shares_open=plan.shares, shares_total=plan.shares, parent_position_id=plan.parent_position_id, is_add_on=plan.is_add_on, days_held=0, status=PositionStatus.ENTERED, ) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Exit simulation # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def simulate_exit( position: OpenPosition, bar: dict[str, Any], config: ExecutionConfig, current_date: dt.date, ) -> FilledTrade | None: """Check if position should exit on this bar. Returns FilledTrade or None. Handles: - Stop loss (low ≤ stop_price) - Target (high ≥ target_price) — with partial exit support - Same-bar conflict (controlled by same_bar_priority) - Time exit (days_held >= max_holding_days) - Kill switch / missing bar handled upstream Partial exits: when target_1_fraction < 1.0 and target is hit, exits only that fraction, moves stop to breakeven for remaining shares, and returns the partial FilledTrade. Remaining shares continue with trailing stop. Slippage is applied in the unfavorable direction for long positions. """ if bar is None: return None bar_low = bar.get("low") bar_high = bar.get("high") bar_close = bar.get("close") slippage = config.slippage_bps_base is_short = position.plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" # Direction-aware stop/target detection if is_short: # Short: stop is above entry (hit when price goes up), target below entry (hit when price drops) stop_hit = bar_high is not None and float(bar_high) >= position.current_stop target_hit = bar_low is not None and float(bar_low) <= position.target_price exit_fill_fn = _short_exit_fill else: # Long: stop below entry (hit when price drops), target above entry (hit when price rises) stop_hit = bar_low is not None and float(bar_low) <= position.current_stop target_hit = bar_high is not None and float(bar_high) >= position.target_price exit_fill_fn = _long_exit_fill exit_reason: ExitReason | None = None exit_fill_price: float | None = None if stop_hit and target_hit: # Same-bar conflict if config.same_bar_priority == "stop_first_conservative": exit_reason = ExitReason.STOP exit_fill_price = exit_fill_fn(position.current_stop, slippage) else: # target_first_aggressive exit_reason = ExitReason.TARGET exit_fill_price = exit_fill_fn(position.target_price, slippage) elif stop_hit: exit_reason = ExitReason.STOP exit_fill_price = exit_fill_fn(position.current_stop, slippage) elif target_hit: exit_reason = ExitReason.TARGET exit_fill_price = exit_fill_fn(position.target_price, slippage) elif position.days_held >= config.max_holding_days: # Dynamic hold: extend mhd for positions with strong R effective_mhd = config.max_holding_days if config.dynamic_hold_enabled and bar_close is not None: close_val = float(bar_close) stop_dist = abs(position.entry_price - position.plan.stop_price) if stop_dist > 0: unrealized_r = ( (position.entry_price - close_val) / stop_dist if is_short else (close_val - position.entry_price) / stop_dist ) if unrealized_r >= config.dynamic_hold_extend_r: effective_mhd = config.dynamic_hold_extend_to if position.days_held >= effective_mhd: exit_reason = ExitReason.TIME if bar_close is not None and float(bar_close) > 0: exit_fill_price = exit_fill_fn(float(bar_close), slippage) else: exit_fill_price = position.entry_price # Dynamic hold: early cut for underwater positions if ( exit_reason is None and config.dynamic_hold_enabled and config.dynamic_hold_checkpoints and bar_close is not None ): close_val = float(bar_close) stop_dist = abs(position.entry_price - position.plan.stop_price) if stop_dist > 0: unrealized_r = ( (position.entry_price - close_val) / stop_dist if is_short else (close_val - position.entry_price) / stop_dist ) for check_day, min_r in config.dynamic_hold_checkpoints: if position.days_held >= check_day and unrealized_r < min_r: exit_reason = ExitReason.NO_PROGRESS exit_fill_price = exit_fill_fn(close_val, slippage) break # No-follow-through early exit # Long: D+1 close < entry. Short: D+1 close > entry. if ( exit_reason is None and config.no_follow_through_exit and position.days_held == 1 and bar_close is not None ): close_val = float(bar_close) nft_triggered = (close_val > position.entry_price) if is_short else (close_val < position.entry_price) if nft_triggered: exit_reason = ExitReason.NO_FOLLOW_THROUGH exit_fill_price = exit_fill_fn(close_val, slippage) if exit_reason is None or exit_fill_price is None: return None # --- Partial exit logic --- fraction = config.target_1_fraction if ( exit_reason == ExitReason.TARGET and fraction is not None and 0.0 < fraction < 1.0 and position.status != PositionStatus.PARTIALLY_EXITED ): partial_shares = max(1, math.floor(position.shares_open * fraction)) remaining_shares = position.shares_open - partial_shares if remaining_shares > 0: # Build partial fill trade partial_trade = _build_filled_trade_partial( position, exit_fill_price, exit_reason, current_date, config, shares=partial_shares, ) # Mutate position: reduce shares, move stop to breakeven, mark partial position.shares_open = remaining_shares position.current_stop = position.entry_price # breakeven stop position.status = PositionStatus.PARTIALLY_EXITED position.partial_fills.append(partial_trade) return partial_trade return _build_filled_trade(position, exit_fill_price, exit_reason, current_date, config) def simulate_kill_switch_exit( position: OpenPosition, bar: dict[str, Any] | None, current_date: dt.date, config: ExecutionConfig, ) -> FilledTrade: """Force-close a position due to kill switch (portfolio drawdown).""" slippage = config.slippage_bps_base is_short = position.plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" exit_fill_fn = _short_exit_fill if is_short else _long_exit_fill if bar is not None and bar.get("close") is not None: exit_price = exit_fill_fn(float(bar["close"]), slippage) else: exit_price = position.entry_price # last known price fallback return _build_filled_trade( position, exit_price, ExitReason.KILL_SWITCH, current_date, config ) def simulate_recycle_close_exit( position: OpenPosition, bar: dict[str, Any] | None, current_date: dt.date, config: ExecutionConfig, ) -> FilledTrade | None: """Close a position at the current close to recycle capital into a stronger candidate.""" if bar is None or bar.get("close") is None: return None slippage = config.slippage_bps_base is_short = position.plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" exit_fill_fn = _short_exit_fill if is_short else _long_exit_fill exit_price = exit_fill_fn(float(bar["close"]), slippage) return _build_filled_trade( position, exit_price, ExitReason.RECYCLE, current_date, config, ) def simulate_rotation_exit( position: OpenPosition, bar: dict[str, Any] | None, current_date: dt.date, config: ExecutionConfig, ) -> FilledTrade | None: """Close a position to rotate capital into a better opportunity.""" if bar is None or bar.get("close") is None: return None slippage = config.slippage_bps_base is_short = position.plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" exit_fill_fn = _short_exit_fill if is_short else _long_exit_fill exit_price = exit_fill_fn(float(bar["close"]), slippage) return _build_filled_trade( position, exit_price, ExitReason.ROTATION, current_date, config, ) def simulate_missing_bar_exit( position: OpenPosition, current_date: dt.date, config: ExecutionConfig, ) -> FilledTrade: """Close a position when bar data is unavailable for too long.""" return _build_filled_trade( position, position.entry_price, ExitReason.MISSING_BAR, current_date, config ) def simulate_scheduled_open_exit( position: OpenPosition, bar: dict[str, Any] | None, config: ExecutionConfig, current_date: dt.date, reason: str, fraction: float = 1.0, ) -> FilledTrade | None: """Execute a queued next-open exit generated by prior close logic.""" if bar is None or bar.get("open") is None: return None open_price = float(bar["open"]) is_short = position.plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" exit_fill_fn = _short_exit_fill if is_short else _long_exit_fill exit_price = exit_fill_fn(open_price, config.slippage_bps_base) if reason == "EARLY_FAILURE": exit_reason = ExitReason.EARLY_FAILURE elif reason == "GIVEBACK": exit_reason = ExitReason.GIVEBACK else: exit_reason = ExitReason.NO_PROGRESS if 0.0 < fraction < 1.0 and position.shares_open > 1: partial_shares = max(1, math.floor(position.shares_open * fraction)) remaining_shares = position.shares_open - partial_shares if remaining_shares > 0: trade = _build_filled_trade_partial( position, exit_price, exit_reason, current_date, config, shares=partial_shares, ) position.shares_open = remaining_shares position.status = PositionStatus.PARTIALLY_EXITED position.partial_fills.append(trade) return trade trade = _build_filled_trade(position, exit_price, exit_reason, current_date, config) position.shares_open = 0 position.status = PositionStatus.CLOSED return trade # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Trailing stop update # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def update_trailing_stop( position: OpenPosition, bar: dict[str, Any], trailing_model: str = "bar_low", warmup_days: int = 0, ) -> None: """Ratchet stop towards price for trailing model. Mutates position in place. For long: ratchet stop UP (never down). Tracks peak_price as highest high. For short: ratchet stop DOWN (never up). Tracks peak_price as lowest low. Models: - "bar_low"/"bar_high": trail to bar extreme (tightest, aggressive) - "pct_3": trail at peak_price * (1 +/- 3%) -- moderate - "pct_5": trail at peak_price * (1 +/- 5%) -- wider Args: warmup_days: Skip trailing until position has been held this many days. """ is_short = position.plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" # Track best price (peak for long = highest high, for short = lowest low) if is_short: bar_low = bar.get("low") if bar_low is not None: position.peak_price = min(position.peak_price, float(bar_low)) else: bar_high = bar.get("high") if bar_high is not None: position.peak_price = max(position.peak_price, float(bar_high)) # Don't tighten stop during warmup period if position.days_held < warmup_days: return if is_short: # Short: trail stop DOWN towards price (tighter = lower stop) if trailing_model == "bar_low" or trailing_model == "bar_high": bar_high = bar.get("high") if bar_high is not None: position.current_stop = min(position.current_stop, float(bar_high)) elif trailing_model.startswith("pct_"): try: trail_pct = float(trailing_model.split("_")[1]) / 100.0 except (IndexError, ValueError): trail_pct = 0.03 trail_stop = position.peak_price * (1.0 + trail_pct) position.current_stop = min(position.current_stop, trail_stop) else: # Long: trail stop UP (original behavior) if trailing_model == "bar_low": bar_low = bar.get("low") if bar_low is not None: new_stop = max(position.current_stop, float(bar_low)) position.current_stop = new_stop elif trailing_model.startswith("pct_"): try: trail_pct = float(trailing_model.split("_")[1]) / 100.0 except (IndexError, ValueError): trail_pct = 0.03 trail_stop = position.peak_price * (1.0 - trail_pct) position.current_stop = max(position.current_stop, trail_stop) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Internal helpers # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def _build_filled_trade_partial( position: OpenPosition, exit_price: float, exit_reason: ExitReason, exit_date: dt.date, config: ExecutionConfig, shares: int, ) -> FilledTrade: """Build a FilledTrade for a partial exit (specific share count).""" is_short = position.plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" commission = shares * config.commission_per_share # only exit leg for partial if is_short: gross_pnl = (position.entry_price - exit_price) * shares else: gross_pnl = (exit_price - position.entry_price) * shares net_pnl = gross_pnl - commission entry_price = position.entry_price if is_short: pnl_pct = (entry_price - exit_price) / entry_price if entry_price != 0 else 0.0 else: pnl_pct = (exit_price - entry_price) / entry_price if entry_price != 0 else 0.0 stop_distance = abs(entry_price - position.plan.stop_price) if stop_distance > 0: r_multiple = gross_pnl / shares / stop_distance else: r_multiple = 0.0 holding_days = (exit_date - position.entry_date).days trade_id = str(uuid.uuid4()) return FilledTrade( trade_id=trade_id, position_id=position.position_id, event_id=position.plan.candidate.event_id, symbol=position.plan.candidate.symbol, event_date=position.plan.event_date or position.plan.candidate.event_date, event_type=position.plan.candidate.event_type or "", score=position.plan.candidate.score or 0.0, timing_class=position.plan.timing_class, engine_id=position.plan.engine_id, entry_timing_policy=position.plan.entry_timing_policy, shadow_only=position.plan.shadow_only, parent_position_id=position.parent_position_id, is_add_on=position.is_add_on, entry_date=position.entry_date, exit_date=exit_date, entry_price=position.entry_price, exit_price=exit_price, exit_reason=exit_reason, shares=shares, commission=commission, slippage_bps=config.slippage_bps_base, gross_pnl=gross_pnl, net_pnl=net_pnl, pnl_pct=pnl_pct, r_multiple=r_multiple, holding_days=holding_days, ) def _build_filled_trade( position: OpenPosition, exit_price: float, exit_reason: ExitReason, exit_date: dt.date, config: ExecutionConfig, ) -> FilledTrade: is_short = position.plan.candidate.trade_direction == "short" shares = position.shares_open commission = shares * config.commission_per_share * 2 # entry + exit legs if is_short: gross_pnl = (position.entry_price - exit_price) * shares else: gross_pnl = (exit_price - position.entry_price) * shares net_pnl = gross_pnl - commission entry_price = position.entry_price if is_short: pnl_pct = (entry_price - exit_price) / entry_price if entry_price != 0 else 0.0 else: pnl_pct = (exit_price - entry_price) / entry_price if entry_price != 0 else 0.0 # R-multiple uses actual fill price stop_distance = abs(entry_price - position.plan.stop_price) if stop_distance > 0: r_multiple = gross_pnl / shares / stop_distance else: r_multiple = 0.0 holding_days = (exit_date - position.entry_date).days trade_id = str(uuid.uuid4()) return FilledTrade( trade_id=trade_id, position_id=position.position_id, event_id=position.plan.candidate.event_id, symbol=position.plan.candidate.symbol, event_date=position.plan.event_date or position.plan.candidate.event_date, event_type=position.plan.candidate.event_type or "", score=position.plan.candidate.score or 0.0, timing_class=position.plan.timing_class, engine_id=position.plan.engine_id, entry_timing_policy=position.plan.entry_timing_policy, shadow_only=position.plan.shadow_only, parent_position_id=position.parent_position_id, is_add_on=position.is_add_on, entry_date=position.entry_date, exit_date=exit_date, entry_price=position.entry_price, exit_price=exit_price, exit_reason=exit_reason, shares=shares, commission=commission, slippage_bps=config.slippage_bps_base, gross_pnl=gross_pnl, net_pnl=net_pnl, pnl_pct=pnl_pct, r_multiple=r_multiple, holding_days=holding_days, ) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Shared execution helpers (used by both BacktestRunner and PaperTradingEngine) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def build_effective_execution_config( candidate: Candidate, config: BacktestConfig, ) -> ExecutionConfig: """Resolve per-engine and per-event execution overrides. Shared by BacktestRunner and PaperTradingEngine to ensure identical stop/target/trailing behavior in both research and live trading. """ execution_updates: dict[str, Any] = {} max_holding_days = candidate.engine_max_holding_days if max_holding_days is None: evt_profile = config.get_event_profile(candidate.event_type) if evt_profile and evt_profile.max_holding_days_override is not None: max_holding_days = evt_profile.max_holding_days_override # Shorten holding period for high-momentum entries if ( max_holding_days is not None and config.risk.high_momentum_max_holding_days is not None and config.risk.high_momentum_holding_threshold is not None ): mom = candidate.features.get("pre_event_momentum_20d") if mom is not None and float(mom) > config.risk.high_momentum_holding_threshold: max_holding_days = min(max_holding_days, config.risk.high_momentum_max_holding_days) if max_holding_days is not None: execution_updates["max_holding_days"] = max_holding_days if candidate.engine_target_atr_multiplier is not None: execution_updates["target_atr_multiplier"] = candidate.engine_target_atr_multiplier if candidate.engine_trailing_model is not None: execution_updates["trailing_model"] = candidate.engine_trailing_model if candidate.engine_trailing_warmup_days is not None: execution_updates["trailing_warmup_days"] = candidate.engine_trailing_warmup_days if candidate.engine_early_failure_close_below_entry_and_reaction_close is not None: execution_updates["early_failure_close_below_entry_and_reaction_close"] = ( candidate.engine_early_failure_close_below_entry_and_reaction_close ) if candidate.engine_early_failure_no_progress_days is not None: execution_updates["early_failure_no_progress_days"] = ( candidate.engine_early_failure_no_progress_days ) if candidate.engine_early_failure_no_progress_r is not None: execution_updates["early_failure_no_progress_r"] = ( candidate.engine_early_failure_no_progress_r ) if candidate.engine_early_failure_no_progress_fraction is not None: execution_updates["early_failure_no_progress_fraction"] = ( candidate.engine_early_failure_no_progress_fraction ) if candidate.engine_dynamic_hold_checkpoints is not None: execution_updates["dynamic_hold_enabled"] = True execution_updates["dynamic_hold_checkpoints"] = [ (int(cp[0]), float(cp[1])) for cp in candidate.engine_dynamic_hold_checkpoints ] if candidate.engine_dynamic_hold_extend_day is not None: execution_updates["dynamic_hold_enabled"] = True execution_updates["dynamic_hold_extend_day"] = candidate.engine_dynamic_hold_extend_day if candidate.engine_dynamic_hold_extend_r is not None: execution_updates["dynamic_hold_extend_r"] = candidate.engine_dynamic_hold_extend_r if candidate.engine_dynamic_hold_extend_to is not None: execution_updates["dynamic_hold_extend_to"] = candidate.engine_dynamic_hold_extend_to # Tiered targets: A-tier vs non-A-tier if config.execution.use_tiered_targets and config.signal.a_tier_score_threshold is not None: if candidate.score >= config.signal.a_tier_score_threshold: if config.execution.a_tier_target_1_r is not None: execution_updates["target_1_r"] = config.execution.a_tier_target_1_r if config.execution.a_tier_target_1_fraction is not None: execution_updates["target_1_fraction"] = config.execution.a_tier_target_1_fraction else: if config.execution.non_a_tier_target_1_r is not None: execution_updates["target_1_r"] = config.execution.non_a_tier_target_1_r if config.execution.non_a_tier_target_1_fraction is not None: execution_updates["target_1_fraction"] = config.execution.non_a_tier_target_1_fraction # Per-engine overrides (highest priority) if candidate.engine_target_1_r is not None: execution_updates["target_1_r"] = candidate.engine_target_1_r if candidate.engine_target_1_fraction is not None: execution_updates["target_1_fraction"] = candidate.engine_target_1_fraction # Adaptive exit: adjust trailing warmup based on close_location zone exec_cfg = config.execution if exec_cfg.adaptive_exit_enabled: cl = candidate.features.get("close_location") if cl is not None: try: cl_val = float(cl) except (TypeError, ValueError): cl_val = None if cl_val is not None: if cl_val >= exec_cfg.adaptive_exit_exhaustion_close_min: execution_updates["trailing_warmup_days"] = exec_cfg.adaptive_exit_exhaustion_trailing_warmup elif exec_cfg.adaptive_exit_orderly_close_min <= cl_val <= exec_cfg.adaptive_exit_orderly_close_max: execution_updates["trailing_warmup_days"] = exec_cfg.adaptive_exit_orderly_trailing_warmup if not execution_updates: return config.execution return config.execution.model_copy(update=execution_updates) def check_next_open_gap_cap(candidate: Candidate, bar: dict[str, Any] | None) -> str | None: """Reject next-open entries when the open gaps up more than the engine cap. Returns skip_reason string or None if the gap is acceptable. Shared by BacktestRunner and PaperTradingEngine. """ if candidate.entry_timing_policy != "next_open": return None if candidate.engine_next_open_gap_cap_pct is None: return None if bar is None: return None open_price = bar.get("open") if open_price is None: return None entry_est = candidate.entry_price_est if entry_est is None or entry_est <= 0: return None gap_pct = (float(open_price) - entry_est) / entry_est if gap_pct > candidate.engine_next_open_gap_cap_pct: return f"next_open_gap_too_large:{gap_pct:.2%}>{candidate.engine_next_open_gap_cap_pct:.2%}" return None