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I Luk Kim fecdc12007 Add earnings surprise feature pipeline and v11 scoring
New data source integration:
- EarningsSurpriseService: GET /api/v1/earnings/surprise/{symbol}
  Returns actual vs estimated EPS with surprise_percentage
- Feature builder: creates earnings_surprise_v1 snapshots for earnings events
- Backfill script runs for existing 1,273 tickers (Alpha Vantage rate limited)

New scoring (v11):
- Small beat (0-3% surprise): +10% bonus (82.4% WR in sample)
- Medium beat (3-8%): +5% bonus
- Big beat (>8%): no bonus (already priced in)
- Miss (<=0%): -5% penalty

Signal validation (n=66 sample):
  Small beat: 82.4% WR, +1.79% mean 5d return
  Big beat: 54.8% WR, +0.47%
  Miss: 55.6% WR, -0.10%

Backfill running (~4 hours). Experiment pending data completion.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
5 months ago
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