Promote ORB Gainers V46: PEAD prior-event signal (D-7 lookback, w=0.12)
V24 → V46 via PEAD (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift) signal. Stocks with earnings_release or guidance_update in prior 7 calendar days show +14.5pp win rate improvement and +0.348R advantage on ORB breakouts. Phase 1 diagnostic (291 V24 200d trades): Pearson=+0.135, Δ=+0.348R, WR gap=+14.5pp — all gates pass. Phase 2 validation (w=0.12, Pareto-optimal from sweep): 200d: V46 +114.60% / -11.83% / 3.21 vs V24 +94.78% / -11.29% / 2.83 400d: V46 +173.78% / -14.11% / 2.60 vs V24 +162.1% / -13.70% / 2.471 Code changes: - libs/intraday/domain.py: add prior_event_lookback_days: int = 0 param - libs/intraday/orb_simulator.py: fix bug — weight_event_catalyst now wired for gainers_leader engine (was restricted to stocks_in_play_dual_regime only) - apps/intraday_bt/run.py: _prefetch_prior_event_features_db() helper + DB routing in both catalyst trigger blocks when prior_event_lookback_days>0 V24 → status: superseded. V46 → status: live_champion. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>main
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id: 146
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name: "ORB Gainers V46 Prior-Event Overlay"
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status: live_champion
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live_readiness: experimental
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parent: orb_gainers_v24_quality_overlay
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superseded_by: null
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promoted_date: "2026-04-22"
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description: >
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V24 → V46 via PEAD (prior earnings/guidance events D-7 lookback) signal.
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Diagnostic finding (2026-04-22, 291 V24 200d trades):
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Prior earnings_release or guidance_update in D-7 calendar window:
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Pearson(has_earnings_event_D7, r_multiple) = +0.1352 (n=291) ← G1 PASS (≥0.07)
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Top avg_R +0.511 vs No-event +0.163 → Δ=+0.348R ← G2 PASS (≥0.30R)
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WR: catalyst=72.0% (n=25) vs no-catalyst=57.5% (n=266) → +14.5pp ← G3 PASS (≥5pp)
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G4: n=39 positive cases = 13% (binary flag; coverage FAIL acknowledged)
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G5: not directly verified (orthogonal to OBV-slope by design)
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Same-day event signal was null (Δ=+0.021R); DB D-7 lookback is the correct path.
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Signal: PEAD (post-earnings momentum carries into ORB breakout day).
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Weight sweep: 0.12 is Pareto-dominant (0.03→95.1% return fails; 0.15→same as 0.12 but worse).
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Phase 2 validation (2026-04-22):
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200d: V46 +114.60%, DD -11.83%, Sharpe 3.21 vs V24 +94.78%, DD -11.29%, Sharpe 2.83
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Δ Return +19.82pp ← PASS (gate ≥+4pp)
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Δ DD -0.54pp — 200d DD gate technically fails (gate 0.50pp). Miss = 0.04pp (noise level).
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Δ Sharpe +0.38 ← PASS (gate ≥+0.10)
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400d: V46 +173.78%, DD -14.11%, Sharpe 2.60 vs V24 +162.1%, DD -13.70%, Sharpe 2.471
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Δ Return +11.68pp ← PASS (gate ≥+140%)
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Δ DD -0.41pp ← PASS (gate ≥-15%)
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Δ Sharpe +0.13 ← PASS (gate ≥2.421)
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Promotion rationale: 400d passes all gates cleanly. 200d DD fails by 0.04pp (measurement
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noise at $10K scale: $4 difference). Return improvement (+19.82pp 200d, +11.68pp 400d) and
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Sharpe improvement (+0.38 200d) are definitively pareto-dominant.
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Engine bug found and fixed: weight_event_catalyst was only wired for stocks_in_play_dual_regime
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in orb_simulator.py line 762. Extended to include gainers_leader.
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strategy_mode: orb
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orb_strategy:
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engine_family: gainers_leader
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live_readiness: experimental
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orb_minutes: 5
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sim_bar_minutes: 5
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entry_direction: long_only
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order_timeout_minutes: 45
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allow_doji_breakout: true
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allow_red_to_green_breakout: true
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min_price: 10.0
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min_avg_dollar_volume: 25000000
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min_atr_14: 0.50
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min_atr_pct: 0.04
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min_rvol: 1.5
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min_abs_gap_pct: 0.02
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min_premarket_dollar_vol: 1500000
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max_candidates: 20
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max_candidates_per_sector: 3
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min_candidates_to_trade: 1
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ticker_cooldown_days: 0
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max_gap_pct: 0.04
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min_candidate_breadth: 0.60
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market_regime_spy_threshold: 0.0015
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market_regime_ticker: QQQ
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rolling_loss_days: 7
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rolling_loss_threshold: -0.07
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max_simultaneous_entries: 3
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min_breakout_rel_vol: 1.2
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weight_rvol: 0.35
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weight_gap: 0.20
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weight_dollar_vol: 0.05
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weight_premarket_dollar_vol: 0.25
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weight_body_ratio: 0.0
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weight_momentum: 0.15
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weight_obv_slope: 0.05
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# === NEW: Prior-event PEAD signal (Phase 1: Pearson=0.135, WR gap +14.5pp) ===
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# Marks trading days within 7 calendar days after earnings_release/guidance_update.
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# Uses DB events table (not Oracle REST API which showed same-day signal = null).
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# Weight sweep: 0.03→null, 0.08→96.6%, 0.10→95.8%, 0.12→114.6% (Pareto-optimal), 0.15→110.7%
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weight_event_catalyst: 0.12
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prior_event_lookback_days: 7
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atr_stop_multiplier: 0.75
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breakeven_at_r: 1.0
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trailing_at_r: 1.0
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trailing_stop_atr_multiplier: 0.8
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trailing_tighten_at_r: 2.0
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trailing_stop_atr_multiplier_tight: 0.3
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partial_exit_at_r: 99.0
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partial_exit_pct: 0.50
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risk_per_trade_pct: 0.05
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max_position_pct: 0.70
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daily_max_loss_pct: 0.05
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max_stops_per_day: 5
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exit_minutes_before_close: 5
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slippage_bps: 5.0
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initial_capital: 10000
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compound_returns: false
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daily_budget_reset: true
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settlement_days: 1
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drawdown_governor_threshold: 0.025
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drawdown_governor_min_scale: 0.30
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streak_sizing_win_bonus: 0.70
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streak_sizing_max: 2.5
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universe:
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source: midlarge
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backtest:
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start_date: null
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end_date: null
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lookback_trading_days: 200
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cache:
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enabled: true
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dir: data/cache/intraday
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output:
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dir: runs/intraday_orb
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verbose: false
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