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1.7 KiB

Overlay Scoring Policy

원칙

  • overlay는 core score를 대체하지 않는다.
  • overlay가 강해도 core score minimum threshold 미달이면 거래하지 않는다.
  • overlay는 랭킹 재정렬, 보유기간 조정, add-on 허용 여부에만 사용한다.

권장 v1 반영 방식

candidate ranking

final_rank_score = core_rank_score * 0.90 + overlay_score * 0.10

optional tie-breaker mode

동일 core bucket 내에서 overlay score 높은 순으로 정렬.

holding adjustment

  • overlay_score >= strong_threshold: max_holding_days +1 or +2 검토
  • overlay_score <= weak_threshold: time stop 보수화

add-on eligibility

  • strong core + strong overlay + market regime ok 일 때만 2차 진입 허용

Source weight (v1 권장)

  • Yahoo headline burst: 0.25
  • YouTube influence: 0.35
  • Wikimedia pageview shock: 0.20
  • FINRA crowding: 0.15
  • Google Trends experimental: 0.05

Source reliability modifier

  • stale data: penalty
  • low entity confidence: penalty
  • duplicated source cluster: penalty
  • missing data: neutral, not punitive beyond confidence adjustment

Overlay score bands

  • 0.75 ~ 1.00: strong
  • 0.55 ~ 0.75: supportive
  • 0.40 ~ 0.55: neutral
  • < 0.40: weak/no support

Allowed actions by band

  • strong: rank boost, hold extension candidate, add-on candidate
  • supportive: tie-breaker advantage
  • neutral: no action
  • weak: no boost, may shorten hold

Explicit 금지

  • overlay-only entries
  • overlay만으로 risk budget 상향
  • 소셜 burst만으로 stop widening
  • 실험 소스(Google Trends) 단독 영향력 과대부여

Calibration

  • monthly recalibration
  • source별 information coefficient와 hit rate 모니터링
  • unstable source는 weight 하향 또는 disable